Friday, October 22, 2010

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 10-22-10

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Mid-Day Report: CAD Steady after Mixed Inflation Data, Euro Firm on Ifo

Canadian inflation data showed headline CPI accelerated from 1.7% yoy to 1.9% yoy in September. However, core CPI unexpectedly dropped from 1.6% yoy to 1.5% yoy. Retail sales came in much stronger than expected by rising 0.5% mom in August while ex-auto sales rose 0.4% mom. Nevertheless, the data did little to change the view that BoC will be cautious before resuming tightening as the Canadian economy would remain vulnerable to being dragged down by slowdown in US. Canadian dollar remains generally steady.

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Featured Technical Report

GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5642; (P) 1.5746; (R1) 1.5806; More.

Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains cautiously on the downside with 1.5749 minor resistance intact. Break of 1.5649 will confirm that whole fall from 1.6104 has resumed and will target 1.5296 support first. Also, considering bearish divergence condition in daily MACD too, break of 1.5296 will suggest that whole rebound from 1.4230 is completed and bring deeper fall. On the upside, above 1.5749 minor resistance will flip intraday bias back to the upside to continue the consolidation from 1.5649.

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GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
00:30 AUD Import Price Index Q/Q Q3 0.70% 0.00% 1.90% 2.00%
01:45 USD Fed Hoenig to Speak on U.S. Economic Outlook -- --
08:00 EUR German IFO - Business Climate Oct 107.6 106.5 106.8
08:00 EUR German IFO - Current Assessment Oct 110.2 110 109.7 109.8
08:00 EUR German IFO - Expectations Oct 105.1 102.9 103.9
11:00 CAD CPI M/M Sep 0.20% 0.10% -0.10%
11:00 CAD CPI Y/Y Sep 1.90% 1.90% 1.70%
11:00 CAD BoC CPI Core M/M Sep 0.20% 0.30% 0.10%
11:00 CAD BoC CPI Core Y/Y Sep 1.50% 1.60% 1.60%
12:30 CAD Retail Sales M/M Aug 0.50% -0.10% -0.10%
12:30 CAD Retail Sales Less Autos M/M Aug 0.40% 0.40% -0.40%
16:00 EUR ECB Carlos Costa Speaks on Economy -- --
-- -- G-20 Summit -- --
Candlesticks and Ichimoku Intraday Trade Ideas

Trade Idea Update: USD/JPY – Sell at 81.70

Dollar's rebound after intra-day brief fall to 80.99 has retained our view that further consolidation would take place and above the Ichimoku cloud top (now at 81.39) would bring retracement to 81.60/70, however, resistance at 81.93 should cap upside, bring another decline later.

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1330 - 1400

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights


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