Thursday, October 21, 2010

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 10-21-10

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Action Insight Market Overview Markets Snapshot

Mid-Day Report: Euro Lifted by Manufacutring PMI, Dollar Steadily in Range

Euro is noticeably stronger against other European majors today on solid manufacutring data. Manufacturing PMI beat market expectations and rose to 54.1 in October from 53.7 a month ago. The reading for Germany alone also improved to 56.1 from 55.1 in September. The market had anticipated a drop. The readings indicate strength in the manufacturing and upstage the bigger-than-expected slowdown in the services sector. Euro breaches 0.89 level against sterling and 1.35 against swissy. However, against dollar, the common currency is some what facing tough resistance from 1.4 psychological level in spite of a breach to 1.405.

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Featured Technical Report

EUR/CHF Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3345; (P) 1.3394; (R1) 1.3477; More

EUR/CHF remains firm after hitting 1.3529 earlier today and intraday bias remains on the upside for further rally as long as 1.3390 minor support holds. 4 hours MACD suggests that the cross might be building up upside momentum again and a break of upper trend line resistance (now at 1.3558) will probably send EUR/CHF further towards 1.3923. Though, we'd still expect tough resistance below 1.4 psychological level to bring reversal. On the downside, below 1.3390 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first. Further break of 1.3265 support will indicate that rebound from 1.2765 is finished and will flip bias back to the downside for this low.

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GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
04:30 JPY All Industry Activity Index M/M Aug -0.40% -0.40% 1.00% 1.10%
06:15 CHF Trade Balance (CHF) Sep 1.69B 1.20B 0.58B
07:30 EUR German Manufacturing PMI Oct A 56.1 54.6 55.1
07:30 EUR German Services PMI Oct A 56.6 55 54.9
08:00 EUR Eurozone Manufacturing PMI Oct A 54.1 53.2 53.7
08:00 EUR Eurozone Services PMI Oct A 53.2 53.8 54.1
08:30 GBP Major Banks Mortgage Approvals Sep 44K 44K 45K 47K
08:30 GBP Retail Sales M/M Sep -0.20% 0.20% -0.40% -0.70%
08:30 GBP Retail Sales Y/Y Sep 1.80% 2.00% 1.90% 2.20%
09:00 CHF ZEW Survey (Expectations) Oct -27.5 -- -5.1
12:30 CAD Leading Indicators M/M Sep -0.10% 0.10% 0.50%
12:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims 452K 453K 462K
14:00 USD Fed James Bullard Gives Opening Remarks in St. Louis -- --
14:00 EUR Eurozone Consumer Confidence Oct A -11 -11
14:00 USD Leading Indicators Sep 0.30% 0.30%
14:00 USD Philly Fed Survey Oct 0.5 -0.7
14:30 USD Natural Gas Storage 87B 91B
Candlesticks and Ichimoku Intraday Trade Ideas

Trade Idea Update: USD/JPY – Sell at 81.60

As dollar has recovered after intra-day sharp retreat from 81.84 to 80.91, retaining our view that further consolidation above yesterday's low of 80.84 would take place and whilst retracement to 81.42-48 (current level of the Ichimoku cloud bottom and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 81.84 to 80.91) is likely, upside would be limited and resistance at 81.93 should remain intact, bring another decline later.

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1330 - 1400

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights


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