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Daily Report: Dollar Rebounds on Talk of "Measured" QE II, Aussie Lower on CPIDollar rebounds today as helped by risk aversion in Asian markets as well as speculation of a gradual QE II from Fed. Investors are taking profits ahead of FOMC meeting next week and send stocks in Asian broadly lower, with MSCI Asia Pacific Index dropping 1.3%. A WSJ article said that the QE II program to be announced by Fed next week will be a "measured approach" only which worth several hundred billion dollars over a few months, and then leave the open for extension open. This is in sharp contrast to earlier speculations of a program in magnitude of a trillion or more. EUR/USD is back pressing 1.38 level today and is set to head further lower towards 1.37 in near term. Dollar index will likely target 78.36 resistance and above too. More strength could be seen in the greenback if gold breaks last week's low of 1315.6. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
AUD/USD Daily OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 0.9802; (P) 0.9864; (R1) 0.9914; More AUD/USD's sharp fall and break of 0.9741 minor support indicates that recovery from 0.9961 has finished. Intraday bias is flipped back to the downside for 0.9661 support and the further to 38.2% retracement of 0.8770 to 0.9998 at 0.9529 to continue the consolidation from 0.9998. On the upside, note that break of parity is still needed to to confirm up trend resumption otherwise, risk will remain on the downside. |
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RBNZ To Leave OCR Unchanged For Rest Of The YearThe RBNZ will likely leave the OCR unchanged at 3% for a second month in October. The market has priced in no chance of a rate at the upcoming meeting as Governor Alan Bollard signaled interest rates will be on hold until 2011. Although CPI for 3Q10 exceeded consensus, it's not significant to change policymakers' cautious stance in economic developments. Data released since the last meeting were disappointing with GDP and retail sales falling short of expectations. We believe the accompanying statement will remain dovish, indicating slower pace of tightening. |
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Trade Idea: USD/CHF – Buy at 0.9800As the greenback has maintained a firm undertone after yesterday's rally to 0.9882, suggesting recent rise from 0.9463 low is still in progress and further gain to 0.9905/10 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 1.0183 to 0.9463) would be seen, however, near term overbought condition should prevent sharp move beyond 0.9950/60 and risk has increased for a retreat later. Trade Idea: USD/JPY – Buy at 81.25Current firmness suggests the rise from 80.84 (last week's low) is still in progress and test of 81.93 resistance is underway, however, break there is needed to retain bullishness and confirm our view that temporary low has been formed earlier at 80.84 and bring retracement of recent decline towards 82.40/45 (50% Fibonacci retracement of 83.99 to 80.84) later. Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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