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Mid-Day Report: Sterling Double Boosted by GDP and S&PSterling is double boosted by better than expected GDP data as well as upgrade in rating outlook from S&P today. Q3 GDP in UK grew 0.8% qoq 2.8% yoy, much stronger than consensus of 0.4% qoq, 2.4% yoy. The solid report reduces the odds that BoE will expand it's GBP 200b asset purchase program in near term. Meanwhile, S&P restored the outlook on the AAA rating on UK government debt from "negative" to "stable". S&P said that "the coalition parties have shown a high degree of cohesion in putting the UK's public finances onto what we view to be a more sustainable footing." Sterling jumps sharply across the board today and would likely see more upside in near term. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
EUR/GBP Mid-Day OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 0.8847; (P) 0.8894; (R1) 0.8926; More EUR/GBP's fall from 0.8940 accelerates today and reaches as low as 0.8870 so far. Focus is now on 0.8704 support. Break there will indicate that a short term top is formed after EUR/GBP failed medium term falling trend line resistance. In such case, deeper decline should then be seen towards 0.8530 resistance turned support. Strong support from 0.8704, followed by break of 0.8940 will in turn indicate that recent rally is still in progress for a test on 0.9137 resistance next. |
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| Special Reports |
RBNZ To Leave OCR Unchanged For Rest Of The YearThe RBNZ will likely leave the OCR unchanged at 3% for a second month in October. The market has priced in no chance of a rate at the upcoming meeting as Governor Alan Bollard signaled interest rates will be on hold until 2011. Although CPI for 3Q10 exceeded consensus, it's not significant to change policymakers' cautious stance in economic developments. Data released since the last meeting were disappointing with GDP and retail sales falling short of expectations. We believe the accompanying statement will remain dovish, indicating slower pace of tightening. |
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| Candlesticks and Ichimoku Intraday Trade Ideas | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Trade Idea Update: GBP/USD – Buy at 1.5790As the British pound has eased after intra-day rally to 1.5897, suggesting minor consolidation would be seen, however, downside should be limited to the Kijun-Sen (now at 1.5792) and previous resistance at 1.5773 should now turn into good support and bring another rise later. Trade Idea Update: USD/JPY – Buy at 80.95As the greenback has risen after finding renewed buying interest around the Ichimoku cloud, suggesting a test of 81.51 resistance is underway, however, break there is needed to confirm a temporary low has been formed at 80.41 and bring retracement of recent decline towards resistance area at 81.84-93, otherwise, further consolidation would take place. Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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