Thursday, October 7, 2010

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 10-7-10

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Action Insight Market Overview Markets Snapshot

Mid-Day Report: EUR/USD Breaks 1.4 as ECB on Hold; Dollar Selloff Continues

Euro extends rally in and breaches 1.4 level against dollar after ECB left rates unchanged at 1.00% today. ECB President Trichet said in the press conference that current rates are "appropriate" and more importantly, "accommodative". Trichet expect "price developments to remain moderate" and recovery to continue at "moderate" pace. The overall tone suggests that ECB is in no rush to cut rates, not expand its non-conventional measures to boost liquidity.

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Featured Technical Report

EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3927; (P) 1.3930 (R1) 1.3933; More.

EUR/USD's rally continues further in early US session and reaches as high as 1.4028 so far. Intraday bias remains on the upside with 1.3897 minor support intact. Current rally is expected to continue to 100% projection of 1.1875 to 1.3330 from 1.2587 at 1.4042. Break will target medium term trend line resistance at 1.4591. On the downside, below 1.3897 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral and bring retreat. But break of 1.3636 support is needed to sign short term topping. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish.

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GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
-- GBP NIESR GDP Estimate Sep -- 0.70%
00:30 AUD Employment Change Sep 49.5K 20.0K 30.9K 31.6K
00:30 AUD Unemployment Rate Sep 5.10% 5.10% 5.10%
05:00 JPY Leading Index Aug P 99.1 99.1 100
08:30 GBP Manufacturing Production M/M Aug 0.30% 0.20% 0.30%
08:30 GBP Manufacturing Production Y/Y Aug 6.00% 5.80% 4.90% 5.00%
08:30 GBP Industrial Production M/M Aug 0.30% 0.30% 0.30% 0.40%
08:30 GBP Industrial Production Y/Y Aug 4.20% 4.20% 1.90% 2.00%
10:00 EUR German Industrial Production M/M Aug 1.70% 0.50% 0.10%
10:00 EUR German Industrial Production Y/Y Aug 10.70% -- 10.90%
11:00 GBP BoE Rate Decision 0.50% 0.50% 0.50%
11:00 GBP BoE Asset Purchase Target 200B 200B 200B
11:45 EUR ECB Rate Decision 1.00% 1.00% 1.00%
12:30 EUR ECB Press Conference -- --
12:30 CAD Building Permits M/M Aug -9.20% -2.00% -3.30%
12:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims 445K 453K 453K
14:30 USD Natural Gas Storage 78B 74B
17:20 USD Fed's Richard Fisher Speaks on Economic Conditions -- --
17:30 USD Fed's Thomas Hoenig Speaks on Economy -- --
Candlesticks and Ichimoku Intraday Trade Ideas

Trade Idea Update: USD/CHF – Sell at 0.9670

As the greenback has recovered after intra-day fall to 0.9555, suggesting a minor low is in place and consolidation with mild upside bias is seen for retracement to 0.9644/45 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement of 0.9789 to 0.9555 and previous support), however, renewed selling interest should emerge around the Ichimoku cloud bottom now at 0.9670) and bring another decline.

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Trade Idea Update: EUR/USD – Buy at 1.3900

As the single currency has maintained a firm undertone, suggesting bullishness remains for recent upmove to bring test of psychological resistance at 1.4000, above there would extend upmove to 1.4042-54 (1.618 times projection of 1.3559 to 1.3809 measuring from 1.3637 and 50% projection of 1.3637 to 1.3949 measuring from 1.3898) but loss of near term upward momentum would limit upside to 1.4090/00 and risk has increased for a retreat later.

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