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Daily Report: Dollar Extends Recovery, Euro Lower as ECB Trichet Rejects Call for ExitDollar rises strongly today, extending Friday's recovery as traders continue take profits on dollar shorts after Bernanke's dovish speech has squeezed the last downside move in the greenback in near term. There are additional help to the greenback from yen's strengthen in crosses on risk aversion, where we see broad based weakness in Asian equities. Also, Euro is sharply lower after ECB President Trichet rejected Weber's call for ending the bond purchase program. Sterling is pressured by CEBR's comment that BoE will expand the asset purchase program by GBP 100b. As noted in our weekly report, dollar should have found a near term bottom last week as markets seem to be tired of QE II talks already. While there is no indication of trend reversal yet, the greenback should enjoy some more rebound in near term. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
EUR/JPY Daily OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 113.33; (P) 114.04; (R1) 114.54; More EUR/JPY drops sharply to as low as 112.47 so far today as correction from 115.65 continues. Intraday bias is mildly on the downside for further decline. But still, we'd expect downside to be contained by 111.44 support and bring resumption of rebound from 105.42. Above 114.76 resistance will flip intraday bias back to the upside for 115.65 and then 38.2% retracement of 139.21 to 105.42 at 118.32. However, note that break of 111.44 will argue that whole rebound from 105.42 might be over and turn focus back to this low instead. |
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| Candlesticks and Ichimoku Intraday Trade Ideas | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Trade Idea: EUR/USD – Sell at 1.3965Despite rising to 1.4161 last Friday, the subsequent reversal from there suggests a temporary top has been formed there and consolidation with downside bias is seen for correction to 1.3850/60 (50% Fibonacci retracement of 1.3559 to 1.4161) but downside should be limited to 1.3789 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement) and support at 1.3775 should hold. Trade Idea: USD/JPY – Buy at 80.95Although dollar has retreated after meeting renewed selling interest around the Ichimoku cloud top, reckon support at 80.88 would limit downside and bring further consolidation. Above 81.49/50 would suggest a temporary low is possibly formed and bring test of 81.68 resistance but only break there would confirm this view and bring correction of recent decline to 82.01. Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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