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Daily Report: Dollar Soft Post FOMC Minutes, UK Job Data WatchedDollar is back under pressure after yesterday's FOMC minutes showed that Fed will ease further "before long". USD/CHF breaches recent low of 0.9554 to resume down trend. But greenback's loss is so far limited against other major currencies as it's still staying above recent low against Euro, Aussie and Loonie. Gold is also still staying below record high of 1366. Sterling has been the relatively weaker currency this week and is going to face test of employment data today. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
USD/CHF Daily OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 0.9505; (P) 0.9617; (R1) 0.9679; More. USD/CHF's break of 0.9554 suggests that recent decline has resumed. Intraday bias is back on the downside and further fall should be seen towards 100% projection of 1.2296 to 0.9916 from 1.1729 at 0.9349 next. On the upside, note that break of 0.9727 resistance will argue that a short term bottom is formed with bullish convergence condition in 4 hours MACD. In such case, stronger rebounds should be seen to 0.9932/1.0181 resistance zone. |
| Special Report |
Fed Leaned Towards Further Easing, Discussed Ways To Anchor Inflation ExpectationsAs indicated in the September FOMC minutes, policymakers discussed rigorously about implementing additional measures – through QE and strategies to boost inflation expectations- to revive the recovery. It appeared that the majority believed that the actions should be taken 'soon'. The minutes heightened speculations that the Fed will announce more easing measures such as purchase of long-term Treasury bonds in the November meeting. The dollar erased all gains made earlier in the day and ended with losses against major currencies. International Coordination Does Not Necessarily Avoid Currency WarComments from Brazilian Finance Minister Guido Mantega's the world is 'in the midst of an international currency war. This threatens us because it takes away our competitiveness' have sparked worries about the impacts of competitive currency devaluation on the global economic growth. Economists, central bankers and other finance leaders have expressed their concerns about harms that such a war would do on the economy. Olivier Blanchard, the IMF's chief economist, said currency wars between major countries could 'derail the global economy's recovery'. |
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| Candlesticks and Ichimoku Intraday Trade Ideas | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Trade Idea: EUR/USD – Buy at 1.3880Although the single currency fell to 1.3775 yesterday, the subsequent rally above the Ichimoku cloud suggests the correction from 1.4030 has possibly ended there and consolidation with upside bias is seen, however, only a break of resistance at 1.4012 would confirm and bring resumption of upmove for retest of 1.4030, otherwise, further choppy consolidation would take place. Trade Idea: USD/JPY – Sell at 82.35Despite yesterday's retreat to 81.66, as the greenback has recovered again, suggesting further consolidation above recent low at 81.37 would take place, however, resistance at 82.38 (yesterday's high) would limit upside and bring another decline later. | Suggested Readings | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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