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Mid-Day Report: Dollar Recovers Further ahead of FOMC MinutesDollar is mildly firmer today, helped by pull back in stocks, and as traders are cautiously waiting for FOMC minutes to shed some light on the timing and scale of the upcoming quantitative easing II program. Fed officials' comments were mixed so far. New York Fed President William Dudley and Chicago Fed President Charles Evans are clearly in support for voiced support for more bonds purchases. Philadelphia Fed President Charles Plosser and Dallas Fed President Richard Fisher doubted the effectiveness of more QE. The known hawk Kansas City Fed President Hoeing kept up the call for rate hikes and a curb on stimulus. While Fed Vice Chairman Janet Yellen expressed her concern that " accommodative monetary policy could provide tinder for a buildup of leverage and excessive risk-taking in the financial system". Note that currently, it seems that markets are pricing something more substantial and if the FOMC minutes to be released today affirm this view, dollar selloff would likely resume. Otherwise, we could see a stronger rebound in the greenback. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
GBP/USD Mid-Day OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 1.5845; (P) 1.5903; (R1) 1.5939; More. GBP/USD dips further to as low as 1.5794 today so far but after all, downside is still contained above 1.5668 support. Recent rebound from 1.5296 is still in favor to continue. Above 1.6016 will target 61.8% projection of 1.4230 to 1.5997 from 1.5296 at 1.6388 next. On the downside, break of 1.5668 will in turn indicate that rise from 1.5296 is finished and flip bias back to the downside for this support. |
| Special Report |
International Coordination Does Not Necessarily Avoid Currency WarComments from Brazilian Finance Minister Guido Mantega's the world is 'in the midst of an international currency war. This threatens us because it takes away our competitiveness' have sparked worries about the impacts of competitive currency devaluation on the global economic growth. Economists, central bankers and other finance leaders have expressed their concerns about harms that such a war would do on the economy. Olivier Blanchard, the IMF's chief economist, said currency wars between major countries could 'derail the global economy's recovery'. More Is Said Than Done – World Leaders Fail To Agree On Resolving Currency TensionsThe IMF meeting over the weekend failed to resolve recent currency tensions aroused from uneven global growth. While the member countries agreed urgent actions are needed to reinforce the IMF's role and effectiveness as a global body for macro-financial surveillance and policy collaboration, no concrete plans came up on what will be done and the debates will likely continue in the upcoming G20 meeting in South Korea. |
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Trade Idea Update: USD/JPY – Buy at 81.65As dollar has retreated again after brief recovery, suggesting further consolidation would take place and marginal weakness from here cannot be ruled out, however, as long as recent low at 81.37 remains intact, prospect of another corrective rebound remains and break of intra-day resistance at 82.38 would add credence to our view that temporary low has possibly been formed at 81.37 and bring retracement of recent decline to 82.57 | Suggested Readings | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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