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Daily Report: AUD/USD Breaks 27 Year High after Strong Employment Data; ECB, BoE WatchedAustralian dollar soars today after release of better than expected employment data and AUD/USD breaks 27 year high of 0.9849. The 49.5k expansion in job market in September, with unemployment rate unchanged at 5.1%, solidify expectation that RBA would finally restart hiking cycle in November, after getting Q3 inflation data later this month. Aussie is also additionally supported by strength in gold which surges to another record high above 1357 as markets expect more quantitative easing from major central banks including Fed, BoJ and BoE. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
AUD/USD Daily OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 0.9769; (P) 0.9770; (R1) 0.9773; More AUD/USD's rally extends further to as high as 0.9873 today so far and breaks 2008 high of 0.9849. Intraday bias remains on the upside and current rally should now target 138.2% projection of 0.8315 to 0.9220 from 0.8770 at 1.0021 next, which is close to parity. On the downside, break of 0.9541 support is needed to indicate short term topping. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish. |
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Both ECB And BOE To Leave Rates Unchanged, Though Against Different BackdropsWe believe will remain cautiously optimistic on the Eurozone's economic outlook as economic data released since the last meeting were resilient. Meanwhile, lower demand for liquidity from banks and great improvement of recent loan data may lead President Tricher to deliver a mildly more hawkish tone in October. That said, the central bank will leave the main refinancing rate unchanged at 1% and reiterate that current levels of interest rates are appropriate in an environment of balanced risks on the macroeconomic outlook. |
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Trade Idea: EUR/USD – Buy at 1.3900As the single currency has resumed recent upmove after brief pullback to 1.3898, suggesting recent rise remains in progress and further gain towards psychological resistance at 1.4000 is underway, however, near term overbought condition should limit upside to 1.4042-54 (1.618 times projection of 1.3559 to 1.3809 measuring from 1.3637 and 50% projection of 1.3637 to 1.3949 measuring from 1.3898) and risk from there is for a retreat later. Trade Idea: USD/JPY – Sell at 83.45As the greenback has remained under pressure on dollar's broad-based weakness, suggesting further decline to 82.60 (61.8% projection of 85.40 to 83.15 measuring from 83.99) would be seen, however, loss of near term downward momentum should prevent sharp fall below 82.00/10 and risk remains for a correction later. | Suggested Readings | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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