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Daily Report: Dollar Extends Fall on Prospect of Fed EasingDollar remains generally weak today on prospect of further quantitative easing from Fed later this year. Yesterday's QE extension from BoJ is seen by many as just a start of another wave of easing from world major central banks. Fed and BoE are both expected to follow in near term. Euro is somewhat supported by speculation that ECB will only have the unlimited funds to maturity until early next year and the bank has not hinted on extension yet. RBA and BoC would be extremely cautious before deciding to raise rates. After all, the expectation of more QE sent gold to new record high of 1351 today and there is not sign of topping so far. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
USD/CAD Daily OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 1.0116; (P) 1.0194; (R1) 1.0236; More. USD/CAD's fall resumed after brief recovery and dropped to as low as 1.0135 so far today. Intraday bias remains on the downside and further decline is still expected to 1.0106 support next. However, we;d continue to expect strong support from around parity to contain downside and bring rebound. On the upside, break of 1.0271 resistance will indicate near term reversal and bring rebound to 1.0377 and above. |
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| Special Reports | |
BOJ Accelerates Easing Measures: Lowering Rates and Buying AssetsThe Bank of Japan accelerates it easing policy as economic outlook deteriorates. The central bank cuts the collateral overnight call rate to 0-0.1% from 0.1% and decides to create a 5 trillion yen fund to buy government bonds and other asset. The fixed-rate credit program is unchanged at 30 trillion yen. Policymakers forecast the pace of economic improvement in the country will slow for some time before returning to the moderate recovery path. Japanese yen declined against the dollar and the euro after the announcement. The 10-year bond yield also plunged to the lowest level to 7 years. RBA Leaves Rate At 4.5%, Aussie SlumpsSelloff in Aussie suggests that investors are obviously disappointed by the RBA's decision to keep the cast rate unchanged at 4.5%. Given the hawkish comments from policymakers over the past weeks, the decision caught the market by surprise. Recent soft data probably made the central bank more cautious in implementing tightening. We retain the view that one more hike will take place in the fourth quarter whereas the timing will be data-dependent. Both ECB And BOE To Leave Rates Unchanged, Though Against Different BackdropsWe believe will remain cautiously optimistic on the Eurozone's economic outlook as economic data released since the last meeting were resilient. Meanwhile, lower demand for liquidity from banks and great improvement of recent loan data may lead President Tricher to deliver a mildly more hawkish tone in October. That said, the central bank will leave the main refinancing rate unchanged at 1% and reiterate that current levels of interest rates are appropriate in an environment of balanced risks on the macroeconomic outlook. |
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| Candlesticks and Ichimoku Intraday Trade Ideas | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Trade Idea: USD/CHF – Sell at 0.9745As the greenback has rebounded after holding above holding above yesterday's low at 0.9645, suggesting consolidation above this level would take place and retracement to the Ichimoku cloud bottom (now at 0.9736) would be seen, however, reckon renewed selling would emerge around 0.9745 (50% Fibonacci retracement of 0.9844 to 0.9645) and bring another decline later. Trade Idea: EUR/USD – Buy at 1.3765As euro has maintained a firm undertone after breaking resistance at 1.3809, suggesting recent upmove is still in progress and should extend gain towards 1.3895/05 (50% projection of 1.3286 to 1.3809 measuring from 1.3637 and 61.8% projection of 1.3381 to 1.3809 measuring from 1.3637), however, loss of near term upward momentum would limit upside to 1.3950/60 (61.8% projection of 1.3286-1.3809 measuring from 1.3637) and risk from there has increased for a correction later. | Suggested Readings | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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