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| Action Insight Market Overview | Markets Snapshot |
Mid-Day Report: Dollar Lower Against Swissy and Yen after Poor ADP ReportDollar spikes lower in early US session after poor job data. ADP employment report showed -39k contraction in September versus expectation of 20k gain. Separately, Challenger report showed -44% yoy drop in planned layoff in September, lower than August's -54.5%. USD/CHF breaches 2008 low of 0.9634 while USD/JPY breaks the 15 year low of 82.86. Markets are concerned of a poor Non-Farm Payroll report this Friday and further deterioration in the job markets will prompt Fed for a more aggressive quantitative easing extension. However, note that commodity currencies are noticeably weaker after the release too and risk aversion might keep dollar mixed in general. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
USD/JPY Mid-Day OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 82.79; (P) 83.39; (R1) 83.81; More. USD/JPY drops further to as low as 82.77 in early US session and the break of 82.86 low argues that recent down trend in USD/JPY might be resuming. Though, no follow through selling is seen yet. We'll stay cautiously bearish as long as 83.33 minor resistance holds and expect deeper fall. On the upside though, above 83.33 will turn intraday bias neutral first. Break of 83.97 resistance will indicate that USD/JPY has bottomed and turn focus back to 85.92 resistance. |
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| Special Reports | |
Both ECB And BOE To Leave Rates Unchanged, Though Against Different BackdropsWe believe will remain cautiously optimistic on the Eurozone's economic outlook as economic data released since the last meeting were resilient. Meanwhile, lower demand for liquidity from banks and great improvement of recent loan data may lead President Tricher to deliver a mildly more hawkish tone in October. That said, the central bank will leave the main refinancing rate unchanged at 1% and reiterate that current levels of interest rates are appropriate in an environment of balanced risks on the macroeconomic outlook. |
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| Candlesticks and Ichimoku Intraday Trade Ideas | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Trade Idea Update: EUR/USD – Buy at 1.3805Despite intra-day retreat from 1.3882 to 1.3799, as the single currency has rebounded after the release of worse-than-expected U.S. ADP job data, suggesting bullishness remains for recent upmove to extend gain towards 1.3895/05 (50% projection of 1.3286 to 1.3809 measuring from 1.3637 and 61.8% projection of 1.3381 to 1.3809 measuring from 1.3637), however, loss of near term upward momentum would limit upside to 1.3950/60 Trade Idea Update: USD/JPY – Sell at 83.80Despite intra-day brief fall to 82.75, lack of follow through selling on the break of previous support at 82.87 and the subsequent rebound suggest consolidation would take place, above the Kijun-Sen (now at 83.08) would bring retracement to the Ichimoku cloud area (now at 83.58-60) but price should falter well below resistance area at 83.99-84.09 and bring another decline later. Below said support would extend weakness to 82.60 (61.8% projection of 85.40 to 83.15 measuring from 83.99), however, reckon 82.00/10 would hold from here. | Suggested Readings | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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