Tuesday, October 19, 2010

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 10-19-10

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Action Insight Market Overview Markets Snapshot

Mid-Day Report: Dollar Jumps as China Unexpectedly Hike Rates

China unexpectedly raised the benchmark lending rate and deposit rates today by 25 bps. One year deposit rate was hiked from 2.25% to 2.5% while lending rate was hiked from 5.31% to 5.56%. This is the first time time the PBoC hiked since 2007. The move is seen by the markets as a way to anchor inflation expectation before CPI release on Thursday, which is expected to show inflation rising further to 3.6%. China's rate hike sent commodities lower in general and helps dollar extends this week's rebound. Canada is pressured against dollar just like other major currencies after BoC left rates unchanged at 1.00% as widely expected.

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Featured Technical Report

GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5806; (P) 1.5904; (R1) 1.5973; More.

GBP/USD drops further to as low as 1.5725 so far today and the break of 1.5754 support indicates that rise from 1.5296 has completed with bearish divergence condition in 4 hours MACD. Intraday bias remains on the downside and further decline should be seen to 1.5296 support first. Also, considering bearish divergence condition in daily MACD too, break of 1.5296 will suggest that whole rebound from 1.4230 is completed and bring deeper fall. On the upside, above 1.5837 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first. But risk will now remain on the downside as long as 1.6104 resistance holds.

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RBA On Hold, Strength In Aussie Eased Needs For Tightening

According to the RBA minutes, the decision to leave the cash rate unchanged at 4. 5% was 'finely balanced'. The central bank considered raising interest rates at the October meeting but global economic uncertainty and rising Australian dollar have eased inflationary pressures. While policymakers concluded that it would be appropriate to hold the cash rate steady for now, they acknowledged it could not wait indefinitely to see whether risks materialized. The RBA pledged to act with flexibility, pending evaluation of further information at the next meeting.

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Economic Indicators Update


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GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
00:30 AUD RBA Minutes -- --
08:00 EUR Eurozone Current Account (EUR) Aug -7.5B -1.9B -3.8B -4.1B
09:00 EUR German ZEW Survey (Economic Sentiment) Oct -7.2 -7 -4.3
09:00 EUR German ZEW Survey (Current Situation) Oct 72.6 63.5 59.9
09:00 EUR Eurozone ZEW Survey (Economic Sentiment) Oct 1.8 -2 4.4
10:00 GBP CBI Trends Total Orders Oct -28 -19 -17
12:30 EUR ECB President Trichet Speaks on Economy -- --
12:30 USD Housing Starts Sep 610K 583K 598K 608K
12:30 USD Building Permits Sep 539K 575K 571K
13:00 CAD BoC Rate Decision 1.00% 1.00% 1.00%
13:40 USD Fed Charles Evans Speaks on Economy -- --
14:00 USD Fed William Dudley Delivers Regional Economic Briefing -- --
14:00 EUR ECB Axel Weber Speaks on Basel III -- --
15:30 USD Fed Dennis Lockhart Speaks on Economy -- --
16:50 USD Fed Richard Fisher Speaks on Economy -- --
17:20 USD Fed Narayana Kocherlakota Speaks on FOMC -- --
18:50 GBP BoE Governor King Delivers Speech on Economy -- --
20:00 USD Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks on Economy -- --
23:00 USD Fed Elizabeth Duke Speaks on Economy -- --
Candlesticks and Ichimoku Intraday Trade Ideas

Trade Idea Update: USD/CHF – Buy at 0.9655

The greenback surged after breaking indicated resistance at 0.9650, suggesting the rise from 0.9463 low is still in progress and would bring retracement of recent decline to resistance at 0.9728 (also 100% projection of 0.9463-0.9650 measuring from 0.9541), however, break there is needed to retain bullishness and extend gain to 0.9770/75 (1.236 times projection) but reckon resistance at 0.9844 (also the 1.618 times projection) would hold.

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Trade Idea Update: EUR/USD – Sell at 1.3980

Although euro has fallen after meeting renewed selling at the Ichimoku cloud bottom, break of yesterday's low at 1.3830 is needed to signal the decline from 1.4161 top has resumed and extend weakness to 1.3800 and then test of previous support at 1.3775, however, near term oversold condition should limit downside to 1.3740/50.

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1330 - 1400

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights


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