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Mid-Day Report: Euro Retreats as Ireland Cut Growth Forecasts, Concern on Wider DeficitEuro retreats sharply today after Irish Central Bank cut its economic growth forecast for this year from 0.8% to 0.2% while that of next year was lowered from 2.8% to 2.4%. The central bank said in a statement urged the government to have a 2011 budget that “credibly demonstrates the first step of a reprogrammed tighter fiscal plan," and that's the "main priority". The echoed Financial Times report that Ireland's budget deficit will be higher than expected this year and prompted concern of even worse outlook ahead. In additional, Nobel prize winner Joseph Stiglitz said that the euro is a currency experiment "that may now be faltering." He also warned that economic woes of PIIGS countries could trigger a break-up of the euro. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
EUR/USD Mid-Day OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 1.3675; (P) 1.3733 (R1) 1.3848; More. With 4 hours MACD crossed below signal line, a temporary top should be in place in EUR/USD. Considering bearish divergence condition in 4 hours MACD, deeper retreat could be seen towards 4 hours 55 EMA (now at 1.3499). But downside should be contained by 1.3286 support and bring rally resumption. Above 1.3791 will target 100% projection of 1.1875 to 1.3330 from 1.2587 at 1.4024, which is close to 1.4 psychological level. |
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| Special Reports | |
BOJ to Accelerate Pace of EasingWeak macroeconomic data and persistent deflationary risk suggest that the BOJ will likely implement more easing measures at its October meeting. Unilateral intervention of Japanese yen proved unsuccessful in curbing appreciation and policymakers should realize accompaniment of other stimulus is needed to generate desired effects. Of the various easing options the central bank may consider, we expect it will most likely announce extension of its fixed-interest funding facilities to 12 months. The size of the operations will also be expanded. The policy rate will remain unchanged at 0.1%. RBA Poised to Rate Hike TomorrowThe market has priced in a 64% chance that the RBA will raise the policy rate by +25 bps to 4.75% at tomorrow's meeting. While recent economic data released in Australia softened a bit, hawkish comments from Governor Glen Stevens fueled expectations that the central bank will resume tightening in October. We have a 50/50 view for a rate hike this month. We retain our view that the RBA will have one more rate hike in 4Q10. If this comes in October, We believe it will be the last rate hike this year. |
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Trade Idea Update: GBP/USD – Buy at 1.5815As cable has staged a strong rebound after intra-day brief fall to 1.5749-50, suggesting the retreat from 1.5874 has ended there and consolidation with upside bias is seen for gain towards 1.5895/00, however, only break of recent high at 1.5924 would signal upmove has resumed and extend gain to 1.5950 but previous chart resistance at 1.5999 should cap upside. Trade Idea Update: EUR/USD – Hold short entered at 1.3720Although euro has recovered after intra-day fall to 1.3666, reckon upside would be limited to the Kijun-Sen (now at 1.3729) and as long as 1.3745/54 (previous minor support and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 1.3809 to 1.3666) holds, mild downside bias remains for another decline, below said support would bring retracement of recent upmove to 1.3645-50 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement of 1.3381 to 1.3809) | Suggested Readings | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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