Thursday, October 14, 2010

Action Insight Daily Report 10-14-10

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Action Insight Market Overview Markets Snapshot

Daily Report: Dollar Extends Weakness, AUD/USD Approaching Parity

Dollar is sharply lower today on risk appetite as global equities are boosted by strong Q3 earnings from US as well as expectation of more quantitative easing from Fed ahead. Dollar index dives through 76.92 support to resume recent down trend to as low as 76.37 so far. Pressure on greenback is felt everywhere with EUR/USD breaking 1.4 psychological level again while USD/CAD breaches parity. USD/JPY drops to as low as 81.13 so far while AUD/USD is approaching parity. Gold also makes another record high today and is quickly approaching 1390 level.

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Featured Technical Report

AUD/USD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9845; (P) 0.9891; (R1) 0.9948; More

AUD/USD's up trend resumes by taking out 0.9915 resistance and reaches as high as 0.9982 so far today. Intraday bias is back on the upside and further rise should be seen to target parity and then 138.2% projection of 0.8315 to 0.9220 from 0.8770 at 1.0021. Break will see further rise to medium term projection level at 1.0165. On the downside, note that break of 0.9768 support will suggest that a short term top is al least formed, possibly with bearish divergence condition in 4 hours MACD, and bring deeper correction first.

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Special Report

Fed Leaned Towards Further Easing, Discussed Ways To Anchor Inflation Expectations

As indicated in the September FOMC minutes, policymakers discussed rigorously about implementing additional measures – through QE and strategies to boost inflation expectations- to revive the recovery. It appeared that the majority believed that the actions should be taken 'soon'. The minutes heightened speculations that the Fed will announce more easing measures such as purchase of long-term Treasury bonds in the November meeting. The dollar erased all gains made earlier in the day and ended with losses against major currencies.

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International Coordination Does Not Necessarily Avoid Currency War

Comments from Brazilian Finance Minister Guido Mantega's the world is 'in the midst of an international currency war. This threatens us because it takes away our competitiveness' have sparked worries about the impacts of competitive currency devaluation on the global economic growth. Economists, central bankers and other finance leaders have expressed their concerns about harms that such a war would do on the economy. Olivier Blanchard, the IMF's chief economist, said currency wars between major countries could 'derail the global economy's recovery'.

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CitiFX Pro Survey Results

The rapidly expanding foreign exchange (forex) markets have attracted a new, sophisticated breed of individual trader focused almost entirely on forex, according to the first phase results of the CitiFX Pro Forex Trader Survey 2010. This first-ever industry wide survey of forex traders was sponsored by CitiFX Pro and conducted in partnership with major forex media outlets including FXstreet.com, ActionForex, ForexPros and ForexTV. Detailed survey results can be found here.

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GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
21:45 NZD Retail Sales M/M Aug 0.00% 0.40% -0.40% -0.50%
21:45 NZD Retail Sales Ex-Auto M/M Aug -0.60% 0.20% -0.10%
22:30 NZD Business NZ Manufacturing Index Sep 49.2 -- 49.3
23:50 JPY Domestic Corporate Goods Price Index Y/Y Sep -0.10% 0.00% 0.00%
8:00 EUR ECB Monthly Bulletin -- --
12:30 CAD Trade Balance (CAD) Sep -2.2B -2.7B
12:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims 450K 445K
12:30 USD Trade Balance Sep -43.5B -42.8B
12:30 USD PPI M/M Sep 0.10% 0.40%
12:30 USD PPI Y/Y Sep 3.70% 3.10%
12:30 USD PPI Core M/M Sep 0.10% 0.10%
12:30 USD PPI Core Y/Y Sep 1.50% 1.30%
14:30 USD Natural Gas Storage 88B 85B
15:00 USD Crude Oil Inventories 1.5M 3.1M
Candlesticks and Ichimoku Intraday Trade Ideas

Trade Idea: USD/CHF – Took profit on short and look to sell again higher

Although the greenback rebounded from yesterday's low of 0.9544 to 0.9643, dollar ran into heavy offers below the Ichimoku cloud and quickly turned south, the currency pair then resumed recent decline this morning on dollar's broad-based selloff, our short position entered at 0.9620 met downside target at 0.9540 and tumbled to as low as 0.9480 before recovering.

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Trade Idea: EUR/USD – Took profit on long and look to buy lower

Although the single currency retreated from yesterday's high of 1.4002 to 1.3912 (we entered long at 1.3920), as renewed buying interest emerged there as expected, the subsequent rally has justified our bullishness (reached indicated target at 1.4000) and once said resistance at 1.4002 was penetrated, price surged to as high as 1.4098 this morning.

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1330 - 1400

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights


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