Saturday, October 16, 2010

Action Insight Weekly Report 10-16-10

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Action Insight Weekly Report Markets Snapshot

Markets Getting Tired of QE II Talks? Dollar Rebounding?

News flow was generally negative for dollar last week. FOMC minutes showed some members thought it's appropriate to have further easing "before long". Bernanke latter echoed and said there is a "case for further action". Initial jobless claims refused to drop and has indeed rose back to 465k, showing sluggishness in the employment market. Headline CPI remains low at 1.1% yoy while core CPI moderated further to 0.8% yoy in September, showing increased risk of deflation. On the other hand, ECB members were hawkish, confirming ECB's stimulus exit stance. Singapore widened the trading band of Singaporean dollar to allow faster appreciation while there are speculations that other Asian central banks will follow.

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Featured Technical Report

EUR/USD Weekly Outlook

EUR/USD rose further to as high as 1.4150 last week but lost upside momentum. A short term top might be in place and initial bias is cautiously on the downside for deeper treat to 1.3775 support and below. Though, we'd expect strong support from 38.2% retracement of 1.2587 to 1.4150 at 1.3553 to contain downside and bring another rise. Above 1.4150 will target medium term trend line resistance at 1.4572 next.

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