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Mid-Day Report: Sterling Steady after Surviving BoE Minutes and Osbourne's Spending ReviewBoE minutes revealed that members were in a three-way split during last meeting. Seven of the nine members voted for no change. Adam Posen voted for more bond purchases as widely expected while Andrew Sentance voted for rate hike. The minutes noted that "some of the members felt the likelihood that further monetary stimulus would become necessary in order to meet the inflation target in the medium term had increased in recent months," suggesting that the bank is still leaning towards more quantitative easing. However, the vote split prompted some talk that BoE would indeed wait for another three months before making a decision. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
GBP/USD Mid-Day OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 1.5607; (P) 1.5775; (R1) 1.5871; More. GBP/USD recovers mildly after dropping to as low as 1.5649. Nevertheless, intraday bias remains on the downside with 1.5837 minor resistance intact. As noted before, rise from 1.5296 has completed with bearish divergence condition in 4 hours MACD. Further decline should be seen to 1.5296 support first. Also, considering bearish divergence condition in daily MACD too, break of 1.5296 will suggest that whole rebound from 1.4230 is completed and bring deeper fall. On the upside, above 1.5837 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first. But risk will now remain on the downside as long as 1.6104 resistance holds. |
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BOC Leaves Interest Rates Unchanged, Revised Down Economic ForecastsAs expected, the BOC kept the overnight rate unchanged at 1% and revised lower growth forecasts for 2010 and 2011, saying 'the output gap is slightly larger and that the economy will return to full capacity by the end of 2012 rather than the beginning of that year'. Policymakers said that a weaker US outlook, moderate growth in emerging economies and slowdown in domestic economic outlook suggest further reduction in monetary policy stimulus would need to be 'carefully considered'. Canadian dollar tumbled after the announcement as the statement was more dovish than previously expected. |
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Trade Idea Update: EUR/USD – Sell at 1.3900 or Buy at 1.3750Although intra-day strong rebound signals the fall from 1.4161 has ended at 1.3697 earlier in Asian morning and consolidation with upside bias is seen for retracement to 1.3888 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 1.4006 to 1.3697), reckon 1.3927-29 (current level of the Ichimoku cloud bottom and 50% Fibonacci retracement of 1.4161 to 1.3697) would limit upside and bring retreat later. Trade Idea Update: USD/CHF – Look to sell dollar on recoveryDespite yesterday's rally to 0.9758, the subsequent retreat from there turned out to be stronger than expected, suggesting the rise from 0.9463 low has formed a temporary top there and consolidation with mild downside bias is seen for correction to the Ichimoku cloud top (now at 0.9600), however, reckon 0.9576 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 0.9463 to 0.9758) would limit downside and the lower Kumo (now at 0.9568) would hold Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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