Friday, October 15, 2010

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 10-15-10

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Action Insight Market Overview Markets Snapshot

Mid-Day Report: Dollar Tumbles Again as Bernanke Said There's a Case for Further Action

Dollar's selloff resumes in early US session after Fed Chairman Bernanke said that there is a "case for further action". Said in the remarks given at a Boston Fed conference, Bernanke noted that "at current rates of inflation, the constraint imposed by the zero lower bound on nominal interest rates is too tight and ...... risk of deflation is higher than desirable." He also warned that "high unemployment is currently forecast to persist for some time." It's difficult to decide the "appropriate quantity and pace of purchases and to communicate this policy response to the public," as Fed doesn't have much experience with non conventional policies. Also, "costs and limitations that must be taken into account in judging whether and how aggressively they should be used. Dollar breaches yesterday's low against Euro immediately after Bernanke started his speech and is trading above 1.41 level. Gold is also set to take on 1390 level again.

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Featured Technical Report

EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3984; (P) 1.4053 (R1) 1.4151; More.

EUR/USD rises further to as high as 1.4150 in early US session and at this point, intraday bias remains on the upside for medium term trend line resistance at 1.4572 next. On the downside, below 1.4007 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first. But break of 1.3775 support is needed to signal topping. Otherwise, outlook in EUR/USD will remain bullish.

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Special Report

Record FX Reserve And Elevated Trade Surplus In China Evidence Global Imbalances

The new set of trade and money data from China gave more evidence on global economic imbalance and heightened worries about a currency war. While the Chinese government will continue to increase the flexibility of the RMB, it will allow the currency to appreciate gradually, instead of an abrupt leap. Meanwhile, the government will step up measures, such as reduction in tariffs and quotas, to encourage imports so as to narrow trade surplus.

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CitiFX Pro Survey Results

The rapidly expanding foreign exchange (forex) markets have attracted a new, sophisticated breed of individual trader focused almost entirely on forex, according to the first phase results of the CitiFX Pro Forex Trader Survey 2010. This first-ever industry wide survey of forex traders was sponsored by CitiFX Pro and conducted in partnership with major forex media outlets including FXstreet.com, ActionForex, ForexPros and ForexTV. Detailed survey results can be found here.

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GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
04:30 JPY Industrial Production M/M Aug F -0.50% -0.30% -0.30%
09:00 EUR Eurozone CPI M/M Sep 0.20% 0.20% 0.20%
09:00 EUR Eurozone CPI Y/Y Sep F 1.80% 1.80% 1.60%
09:00 EUR Eurozone CPI - Core Y/Y Sep 1.00% 1.10% 1.00%
09:00 EUR Eurozone Trade Balance (EUR) Aug -1.4B 1.3B -0.2B
12:15 USD Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke Speaks at Boston Fed Conference -- --
12:30 CAD Manufacturing Sales MoM Aug 2.00% 0.50% -0.90%
12:30 CAD New Motor Vehicle Sales M/M Aug -4.80% 1.30% 2.40%
12:30 USD CPI M/M Sep 10.00% 0.20% 0.30%
12:30 USD CPI Y/Y Sep 1.10% 1.20% 1.10%
12:30 USD CPI Core M/M Sep 0.00% 0.10% 0.00%
12:30 USD CPI Core Y/Y Sep 0.80% 0.90% 0.90%
12:30 USD Advance Retail Sales Sep 0.60% 0.40% 0.40%
12:30 USD Retail Sales Less Autos Sep 0.40% 0.40% 0.60%
12:30 USD Empire State Manufacturing Oct 15.73 7.1 4.1
13:55 USD U. of Michigan Confidence Oct P 69.2 68.2
14:00 USD Business Inventories Aug 0.50% 1.00%
20:00 USD Treasury Currency Report
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