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Mid-Day Report: Dollar Weak Against Euro, Mixed ElsewhereDollar is mixed in US session after release of a string of economic data. Weakness is seen against Euro, yen and Aussie. However, the greenback is indeed quite steady against other major currencies. ISM manufacturing index dropped slightly more than expected to 54.4 in September. But one thing to note is the surge in price paid component to 61.5 to 70.5. Personal income and spending rose 0.5% and 0.4% in August respectively. Core PCE was unchanged at 1.4% yoy . U of Michigan consumer sentiment was revised up to 68.2 in September while construction spending rose 0.4% in August. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
EUR/USD Mid-Day OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 1.3567; (P) 1.3625 (R1) 1.3691; More. EUR/USD rises further to as high as 1.3763 today so far and intraday bias remains on the upside for the moment. Current rise from 1.2587 is expected to target 100% projection of 1.1875 to 1.3330 from 1.2587 at 1.4024, which is close to 1.4 psychological level. On the downside, below 1.3626 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral and bring retreat first. But in such case, we'd expect strong support from 1.3286 to contain downside and bring another rise. |
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Get Ready For BOE's QERecent discussions about additional easing from the Fed have caused the dollar to fall against almost all currencies. Everyone in the market is paying extra attention to US economic data, trying to estimate when the central bank will announced new bond-buying programs. The situation has masked the fact that the US is only one of the several advanced countries that are struggling to boost economic recoveries and are increasingly likely to expand their balance sheets. In its September minutes, the BOE revealed a more dovish outlook and signaled the possibility of expanding its asset-purchase program. Currently trading at 1.58/59 against the dollar, the pound has risen for 3 consecutive weeks with gains 10% from May's low. We believe a large part of the rally was driven by the broad-based weakness in USD, rather than strong underlying fundamentals. Excess Liquidity Declines as European Banks Require Less Fund from ECBDemand for the 6-day tender and 3-month LTRO was much less than expected, indicating banks dependence of the ECB as a source of funding has dropped. The central bank lent 29.443B euro in the 6-day tender, expiring on October 6 with the number of participating banks falling to 50 from 78 in the July one. It also lent 104B euro in the 3-month LTRO, compared with 131.9B euro in the June operation. The 6-month LTRO of 18B euro, the 12-month LTRO of 75B euro and the 3-month LTRO of 131.9B euro expired today while the 6- and 12-month operations would not be renewed. The ECB aimed to use the new 6-day and 3-month operations to smoothen the transition period. |
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Trade Idea Update: USD/CHF – Buy at 0.9735As dollar has continued to move lower, suggesting near term downside risk remains for weakness to 0.9730/35, however, as long as yesterday's low at 0.9708 holds, further consolidation would take place and prospect of another corrective rebound remains. Above intra-day resistance at 0.8944 would bring retracement of recent decline to previous resistance at 0.9878 Trade Idea Update: USD/JPY – Hold long entered at 83.20As dollar has remained under pressure, suggesting caution on our long position entered at 83.20 and support at 83.16 needs to hold to retain bullish prospect for another corrective rebound to minor resistance at 83.64, break there would bring retracement of recent decline to 83.90/95 and possibly previous resistance at 84.09, however, renewed selling interest is likely to emerge there. | Suggested Readings | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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