Friday, October 8, 2010

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 10-8-10

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Action Insight Market Overview Markets Snapshot

Mid-Day Report: Dollar Selling Resumes after Poor Non-Farm Payroll

Dollar is back under press after release of much worse than expected job report. Non-farm payroll showed -95k contraction in the job market in September, versus expectation of 5k rise. Prior month's figure was also revised slightly down to -57k. Unemployment rate, though, was unchanged at 9.6%. UD/JPY dives through 82 level immediately after the release which other major currencies are starting to rebuild momentum versus the greenback. Gold is also back above 1340 level.

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Featured Technical Report

USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 82.00; (P) 82.51; (R1) 82.93; More.

USD/JPY drops further to as low as 81.94 in early US session. Intraday bias remains on the downside and further decline should be seen to 61.8% projection of 92.87 to 82.86 from 85.92 at 79.73, which is close to 79.75 low. On the upside, above 82.55 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first. But break of 83.15 resistance is needed to be first signal of bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

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Special Report

ECB Leaves Rates Unchanged, More Upbeat on Money Markets

The ECB leaves the main refinancing rate unchanged at 1% and reiterates that the current keyinterest rates are appropriate. Despite unchanged monetary policy, the tone of the accompanying statement is more hawkish than before and shows no signs of delaying the schedule of exiting stimulus. The central bank retains a moderate growth and price outlook in the medium-term. At the press conference, President Trichet once again warned of that adverse impacts of high currency volatility on the economy and restated his support on a 'strong dollar'.

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Economic Indicators Update


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GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
23:50 JPY BoJ Minutes -- --
23:50 JPY Current Account (JPY) August 1.18T 1.09T 1.46T
05:00 JPY Eco Watchers Survey: Current Sep 41.2 44.5 45.1
05:45 CHF Unemployment Rate Sep 3.70% 3.70% 3.80%
06:00 EUR German Trade Balance (EUR) Aug 11.7B 12.2B 12.7B
08:30 GBP PPI Input M/M Sep 0.70% 0.40% -0.50%
08:30 GBP PPI Input Y/Y Sep 9.50% 8.60% 8.10%
08:30 GBP PPI Output M/M Sep 0.30% 0.10% 0.00%
08:30 GBP PPI Output Y/Y Sep 4.40% 4.30% 4.70%
08:30 GBP PPI Output Core Y/Y Sep 4.60% 4.30% 4.60%
11:00 CAD Net Change in Employment Sep -6.6K 10.0K 35.8K
11:00 CAD Unemployment Rate Sep 8.00% 8.00% 8.10%
12:15 CAD Housing Starts Sep 186K 179.5K 183.3K 189K
12:30 USD Change in Non-farm Payrolls Sep -95K 5K -54K -57K
12:30 USD Unemployment Rate Sep 9.60% 9.70% 9.60%
14:00 USD Wholesale Inventories Aug 0.50% 1.30%
14:30 CAD BoC Business Outlook Survey
-- G7 Meeting -- --
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