Thursday, October 14, 2010

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 10-14-10

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Action Insight Market Overview Markets Snapshot

Mid-Day Report: Dollar Weakness Continues; Swissy, Aussie, Gold at Record Highs

Dollar remains broadly pressured in early US session, with EUR/USD staying comfortably above 1.4 level. Swissy and Aussie both make new record high against greenback today with AUD/USD just shy of parity. Even the weak sterling managed to climb against greenback and is trading above 1.6 level. Gold retreats mildly after jumping to new record high above 1388 level. Data from US saw stronger than expected producer inflation but provide little support to the greenback. Headline PPI accelerated to 4.% yoy in September while core PPI rose to 1.6% yoy, both were above consensus. Trade deficit widened more than expected to -46.3b. Jobless claims rose back to 462k. Canadian trade deficit narrowed to CAD -1.3b.

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Featured Technical Report

USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 81.65; (P) 81.82; (R1) 81.98; More.

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains on the downside with 81.54 minor resistance intact. Current fall is expected to target 61.8% projection of 92.87 to 82.86 from 85.92 at 79.73, which is close to 79.75 low. On the upside, above 81.54 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations. But break of 83.15 resistance is needed to be the first signal of bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

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Special Report

Record FX Reserve And Elevated Trade Surplus In China Evidence Global Imbalances

The new set of trade and money data from China gave more evidence on global economic imbalance and heightened worries about a currency war. While the Chinese government will continue to increase the flexibility of the RMB, it will allow the currency to appreciate gradually, instead of an abrupt leap. Meanwhile, the government will step up measures, such as reduction in tariffs and quotas, to encourage imports so as to narrow trade surplus.

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CitiFX Pro Survey Results

The rapidly expanding foreign exchange (forex) markets have attracted a new, sophisticated breed of individual trader focused almost entirely on forex, according to the first phase results of the CitiFX Pro Forex Trader Survey 2010. This first-ever industry wide survey of forex traders was sponsored by CitiFX Pro and conducted in partnership with major forex media outlets including FXstreet.com, ActionForex, ForexPros and ForexTV. Detailed survey results can be found here.

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GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
21:45 NZD Retail Sales M/M Aug 0.00% 0.40% -0.40% -0.50%
21:45 NZD Retail Sales Ex-Auto M/M Aug -0.60% 0.20% -0.10%
22:30 NZD Business NZ Manufacturing Index Sep 49.2 -- 49.3
23:50 JPY Domestic Corporate Goods Price Index Y/Y Sep -0.10% 0.00% 0.00%
08:00 EUR ECB Monthly Bulletin -- --
12:30 CAD Trade Balance (CAD) Sep -1.3B -2.2B -2.7B
12:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims 462K 450K 445K
12:30 USD Trade Balance Sep -46.3B -43.5B -42.8B
12:30 USD PPI M/M Sep 0.40% 0.10% 0.40%
12:30 USD PPI Y/Y Sep 4% 3.70% 3.10%
12:30 USD PPI Core M/M Sep 0.10% 0.10% 0.10%
12:30 USD PPI Core Y/Y Sep 1.60% 1.50% 1.30%
14:30 USD Natural Gas Storage 88B 85B
15:00 USD Crude Oil Inventories 1.5M 3.1M
Candlesticks and Ichimoku Intraday Trade Ideas

Trade Idea Update: USD/CHF – Sell again at 0.9570

Dollar's rebound after intra-day brief fall to 0.9463 suggests a minor low has been formed and further consolidation above this level would take place with mild upside bias for retracement to previous support at 0.9544, however, renewed selling interest should emerge around 0.9564/70 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement of 0.9728 to 0.9463), bring another decline later.

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Trade Idea Update: GBP/USD – Buy at 1.5965

As the British pound has retreated after intra-day rally to 1.6067, suggesting a minor top is possibly formed and consolidation below this level would take place with mild downside bias for retracement to 1.5966-67 (previous resistance and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of 1.5806 to 1.6067) but renewed buying interest should emerge there and bring another rise.

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1330 - 1400

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights


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