Thursday, October 28, 2010

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 10-28-10

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Action Insight Market Overview Markets Snapshot

Mid-Day Report: Sterling Strong on Sovereign Demand, Dollar Retreats Further after Jobless Claims

Dollar extends retreat in early US session as better than expected initial jobless claims data lifts risk appetite mildly. Meanwhile, Sterling's strength is most impressive today. The pound's decline somewhat halted after stronger than expected Q3 GDP data cooled speculation of QE extension from BoE in near term. Additional boost is seen from talk that there are persistent buying interest on UK sovereign bonds from Middle East. EUR/GBP is back pressing 0.87 level and looks likely to take it out decisively to confirm short term reversal. We'd likely see sterling strengthen further ahead.

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Featured Technical Report

GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5710; (P) 1.5788; (R1) 1.5845; More.

GBP/USD's break of 1.5894 indicates that rebound from 1.5649 has resumed. Intraday bias is back to the upside and further rise should be seen towards 1.6104 resistance. Though, decisive break there is still needed to confirm resumption of rally from 1.5296. Otherwise, we'd expect more sideway trading in range of 1.5649/1.6104 first. Near term outlook in GBP/USD is quite mixed for the moment as bearish divergence condition in daily MACD suggested it has topped. However, strong support from 55 days EMA argues that rally is still in progress. We'll see which side of the range GBP/USD breaks out before taking a stance.

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RBNZ Keeps OCR At 3%. Accompanying Statement Less Dovish

The RBNZ left the OCR unchanged at 3% for a third consecutive month. While this was widely anticipated, the accompanying statement was less dovish than previously fears despite disappointing economic data since the September meeting. Policymakers acknowledged that recent data has turned out 'weaker-than-expected' but believed the 'medium-term outlook for the New Zealand economy remains broadly in line with that assumed at the time of the September MPS' and 'overall, continued GDP growth is expected to gradually absorb current surplus capacity over the next few years'.

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Economic Indicators Update


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GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
20:00 NZD RBNZ Rate Decision Oct 3.00% 3.00% 3.00%
23:00 AUD Conference Board Leading Index Aug 0.20% -- 0.80%
23:50 JPY Retail Trade Y/Y Sep 1.20% 3.20% 4.30%
4:30 JPY BoJ Rate Decision 0.10% 0.10% 0.10%
6:00 GBP Nationwide House Prices M/M Oct -0.70% -0.30% 0.10%
7:55 EUR German Unemployment Change Oct -30K -40K
7:55 EUR German Unemployment Rate Oct 7.40% 7.50%
9:00 EUR Eurozone Consumer Confidence Oct -11 -11
9:00 EUR Eurozone Economic Confidence Oct 103.2 103.2
9:00 EUR Eurozone Industrial Confidence Oct -1 -2
9:00 EUR Eurozone Services Confidence Oct 7 8
10:00 GBP CBI Reported Sales Oct 35 49
12:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims 455K 452K
14:30 USD Natural Gas Storage 72B 93B
Candlesticks and Ichimoku Intraday Trade Ideas

Trade Idea Update: GBP/USD – Long entered at 1.5780 met target and look to buy again on pullback

Current anticipated rally together with the break of resistance at 1.5897 confirm our view that the rise from 1.5650 is still in progress and a strong retracement of the decline from 1.6108 is underway for gain to 1.5933 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 1.6108 to 1.5650) but reckon previous support at 1.5970 would hold on first testing.

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Trade Idea Update: USD/CHF – Buy at 0.9800

Although the greenback has rebounded after intra-day retreat to 0.9841, above 0.9915 is needed to signal pullback from 0.9930 has ended and bring resumption of recent rise from 0.9463, otherwise, further consolidation would take place and another corrective fall cannot be ruled out, however, 0.9794-96 should limit downside, bring another rally later.

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1330 - 1400

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights


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