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Mid-Day Report: Dollar Remains Weak after Solid Retail Sales DataDollar continues to hover slightly above the new 15 year low against yen in early US session as stronger than expected retail sales report provide little support so far. Headline sales rose 0.4% in August while ex-auto sales rose and impressive 0.6%. USD/CHF breaches parity earlier today and is still weak. Canadian dollar extends recent rise after new motor vehicle sales rose much more than expected by 2.4% in July. Aussie is also firm as supported by risk appetite. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
USD/CAD Mid-Day OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 1.0242; (P) 1.0293; (R1) 1.0322; More. USD/CAD's fall extends further to as low as 1.0245 in early US session. At this point, intraday bias remains on the downside and further decline should be seen towards 1.0106 key support next. Though again, recent price actions are treated as sideway pattern in range of 1.0106/851. We'd expect strong support from around parity to bring rebound. On the upside, above 1.0303 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first. But break of 1.0508 resistance is needed to indicate that fall from 1.0671 is finished. Otherwise, another decline is still in favor. |
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| Special Reports |
Preview of SNB Meeting: No Immediate Need for Rate HikeThe SNB will maintain the 3-month LIBOR target at 0.25% for an 18th month in September. Although economic growth has exceeded the central bank's expectations, inflation remained moderate. There's no immediate need for a rate hike at the moment. Concerning appreciation of Swiss franc, the SNB will reiterate its stance but we doubt much will be done in curbing the rise. Preview of RBNZ Meeting: A Pause in SeptemberAfter raising the policy rate at 2 consecutive meetings, we expect the RBNZ to leave the OCR unchanged at 3% this month. Both of growth and inflation have not evolved as strong as the central bank forecast in June and the earthquake in Christchurch last week may lead policymakers to revise down the economic forecasts. Given heightened uncertainty in the domestic and foreign growth prospects, the RBNZ will take a more cautious stance in determining the next step in its monetary policy. Growth Remains Robust in China, Increases Likelihood of Soft-LandingThe latest set of macroeconomic data from China indicates domestic demand in the world's second largest economy, as well as the biggest growth driver, remained resilient in August. This soothed market concerns that the government's cooling measures implemented earlier in the year would cause an abrupt brake on economic expansion. Developments in August generally beat expectations with industrial production and fixed-asset investments showing strong rebounds while retail sales remaining robust. Inflation stayed above official target of +3% but should being to ease in coming months. We expect the government will reiterate its tight policy stance for the rest of the year but is unlikely to accelerate the tightening schedule. |
| Economic Indicators Update |
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Trade Idea Update: EUR/USD – Sell at 1.2920Although euro has retreated after intra-day marginal rise to 1.2910 (just faltered below previous resistance at 1.2920), below indicated minor support at 1.2790/95 is needed to signal top has been formed there and bring retracement of the move from 1.2642 for further fall towards 1.2767 and 1.2747 (both are previous resistance) but reckon support at 1.2675 would remain intact. Trade Idea Update: USD/JPY – Look to sell higherAs the greenback has recovered after intra-day brief fall to 83.07, suggesting minor consolidation would take place and retracement to the Kijun-Sen (now at 83.61) is likely, however, upside should be limited to the flat ground Ichimoku cloud bottom (now at 83.94) and renewed selling interest should emerge below the upper Kumo (now at 94.08) and bring another decline later. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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