Tuesday, September 28, 2010

Action Insight Daily Report 9-28-10

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Action Insight Market Overview Markets Snapshot

Mid-Day Report: Dollar Soft in Mixed Price Actions

Price actions are rather mixed today. Sterling was lifted earlier by affirmative comments from IMF on UK's austerity plan but fails to maintain gains. Euro dipped, together with European stocks, on renewed concern on downgrade in peripheral Eurozone countries but loss was limited as European equities recovered. Dollar remains steady and is somewhat supported by the sharp retreat in gold, which is now back trading at around 1290. Talk of smaller scale QE II from Fed would probably limit downside of the greenback in near term. But the overall tone is still bearish.

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Featured Technical Report

GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5787; (P) 1.5827; (R1) 1.5866; More.

GBP/USD edged higher to 1.5894 but fails to sustain gain. With 4 hours MACD staying below signal line, intraday bias remains neutral and some more consolidations could be seen first. But in case of another fall, downside should be contained by near term rising channel support (now at 1.5658) and bring rally resumption. Above 1.5894 will target a test on 1.5997 high next. Though, break of the channel support will argue that rebound from 1.5296 might be finished and will turn focus to 1.5503 support for confirmation.

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Special Reports

Net Shorts In USD Expanded Further, EUR Shifted To Positive Territory

To dump the dollar' remained the theme in the FX market and CFTC's Commitments of Traders report showed that net shorts in USD grew for a third straight week to $16B for the week ended September 21. Major beneficiaries from the broad-based USD weakness were high-yielder such as AUD and NZD. Net length in Japanese yen was halved as the government intervened by buying USD and selling JPY. EUR returned to the positive territory for the first time since December 2009 as the single currency benefited from the 'anti-USD' trades. GBP is the only currency that stayed in the negative territory with USD last week.

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Economic Indicators Update


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GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
06:00 EUR German GfK Consumer Sentiment Oct 4.9 4.2 4.1 4.3
06:00 CHF UBS Consumption Indicator Aug 1.95 -- 1.86 1.88
08:30 GBP UK GDP Q/Q Q2 F 1.20% 1.20% 1.20%
08:30 GBP UK GDP Y/Y Q2 F 1.70% 1.70% 1.70%
08:30 GBP Total Business Investment Q/Q Q2 F 0.70% -1.60% -1.60%
08:30 GBP Current Account (GBP) Q2 -7.4B -8.2B -9.6B -11.3B
10:00 GBP CBI Reported Sales Sep 49 25 35
13:00 USD S&P/Case-Shiller Composite-20 Y/Y Jul 3.20% 3.10% 4.23%
14:00 USD Consumer Confidence Sep 52.5 53.5
-- EUR German CPI M/M Sep P -0.10% -0.20% 0.00%
-- EUR German CPI Y/Y Sep 1.30% 1.30% 1.00%
Candlesticks and Ichimoku Intraday Trade Ideas

Trade Idea Update: EUR/USD – Buy at 1.3415

Although the single currency has eased after faltering below yesterday's high of 1.3507 and consolidation would take place, as long as intra-day support at 1.3381 holds, bullishness remains for recent upmove to resume after sideways trading. Above said resistance at 1.3507 would extend gain to 1.3530 and possibly 1.3550 but reckon 1.3590/00 would cap upside..

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Trade Idea Update: USD/JPY – Buy at 83.70

Although dollar's breach of 84.11 support signals the decline from 85.94 is still in progress and weakness to 83.65/75 (50% projection of 85.40 to 84.11 measuring from 84.34( and 100% projection of 85.94 to 84.26 measuring from 85.40), loss of near term downward momentum should limit downside to 83.45/50 and bring rebound later.

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Fundamental Highlights

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