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Daily Report: EUR/CHF at Record Low, USD/JPY at 15 Year Low on Risk AversionYen and Swiss franc are both strong in Asian session today as supported by risk aversion. Asian equities are broadly lower following the -1% fall in DOW overnight, with Nikkei down -2.1%. Markets sentiments continued to be weighed down by renewed worry on Europe's debt problem as yield spread between Portugal and Germany debts climbed to a new record while gold is approaching its record high. There are also fresh concern on the Greece situation as the country hasn't disclosed full details of the financial details of the transactions that it used to conceal debt. EUR/CHF dives to new record low while USD/JPY also hit new 15 year low. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
EUR/CHF Daily OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 1.2743; (P) 1.2889; (R1) 1.2968; More EUTR/CHF's break of 1.2850 confirms that recent down trend has resumed. Intraday bias remains on the downside and further decline should now be seen to 100% projection of 1.4587 to 1.3072 from 1.3923 at 1.2408 next. On the upside, above 1.2922 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations. But upside should be limited by 1.3162 resistance and bring fall resumption. |
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RBA Said Rates Are Appropriate 'For The Time Being', Signal Of A Hike Soon?As expected, the RBA left the cash rate unchanged at 4.5% as global economic outlook remained uncertain. Policymakers judged that about-trend growth and inflation in the near-term rendered the setting of monetary policy 'appropriate for the time being'. The central bank acknowledged that global economy had grown 'faster than trend' in the first half but it would probably 'ease back to about trend pace over the coming year'. Commenting specifically on developments in China, Europe and the US, the RBA stated that growth in China 'is moderating to a more sustainable rate as policies are now less accommodating'. While 'output has improved significantly' in Europe so far this year, 'prospects for next year are probably for slower growth given planned fiscal contraction'. In the US, growth was 'solid in the first half of 2010 but the pace of expansion in the second half of the year is looking weaker'. |
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Trade Idea: GBP/USD – Hold short entered at 1.5385Despite breaking previous support at 1.5327, the British pound staged a stronger-than-expected rebound from 1.5296 (yesterday's low) partly due to active buying by Asian sovereign names, suggesting caution on our short position entered at 1.5385 and 1.5418-25 (current level of the flat ground Ichimoku cloud top and previous resistance) must hold to retain bearishness for another decline later. Trade Idea: EUR/USD – Sell at 1.2770The single currency has finally recovered after falling to 1.2676, suggesting a minor low is formed and consolidation with mild upside bias would be seen for retracement to the Kijun-Sen (now at 1.2745), however, renewed selling interest should emerge around 1.2769-76 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement of 1.2920 to 1.2676 and previous support) and bring another decline later. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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