Sunday, January 10, 2010

Action Insight Daily Report 1-11-10

ActionForex.com
Action Insight Daily Report

Dollar Sharply Lower as Strong China Export Boosts Risk Appetite

Dollar is sharply lower as the week starts on risk appetite as Asian stocks are broadly lifted by surprisingly strong China trade data. Exports in China jumped nearly 18% in December after 13 months of decline. Dollar index breaches 77 level briefly while gold soared to as high as 1163 before retreating. Crude oil also extends recent rise to as high as 83.67 so far. Among the major currencies, Swiss Franc is gaining most today as supported by buying against Euro. Meanwhile Aussie is strong as supported by gold as well as it's trade relationship with China.

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Candlesticks & Ichimoku Analysis

Trade Idea: USD/CHF - Sell At 1.0255

Despite rebounding to 1.0386 last Friday, the greenback faltered below the Ichimoku cloud top and did fall sharply from there as suggested in our previous update, price tumbled after breaking support at 1.0237 to as low as 1.0132 this morning. This selloff signals recent rise from 0.9910 has ended at 1.0509 and at least a strong correction is under way to 1.0100, however, reckon 1.0050 would limit downside due to oversold condition.

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Trade Idea: GBP/USD - Sell At 1.6230, O.C.O. Buy At 1.5915

Although cable rebounded to 1.6112 last Friday, cross-selling in sterling especially versus euro suggests further choppy consolidation within 1.5832-1.6242 range would take place, therefore, upside should be limited to indicated upper level and bring retreat later to the Kijun-Sen (now at 1.6026), however, support at 1.5896 should attract renewed buying interest and bring another bounce later.

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Trade Idea: EUR/USD - Buy At 1.4415

Despite falling to 1.4264 last Friday, the single currency staged a strong rise from there and the breach of resistance at 1.4485 signal temporary low has indeed been formed at 1.4218 and correction of recent decline to 1.4600 is under way, above there would extend gain to 1.4680 (approx. 50% Fibonacci retracement of recent decline from 1.5142/45), however, reckon 1.4696 (1.618 times projection of 1.4218 to 1.4485 measuring from 1.4264) would limit upside and price should falter below 1.4750/60.

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Trade Idea: USD/JPY - Hold Long Entered At 92.30

The greenback slipped again on dollar's broad-based weakness especially versus European currencies, suggesting caution on our long position entered at 92.30 and 91.65/70 must hold for prospect of another rebound to the Tenkan-Sen (now at 92.93), break there would signal the pullback from Friday's high at 93.78 has ended, then upmove from 84.82 low should resume for retest of this level, then towards 94.18 (50% projection of 87.36 to 93.22 measuring from 91.25) but reckon 94.87 (61.8% projection) would hold from here.

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Featured Technical Report Market Highlights

AUD/USD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9160; (P) 0.9206; (R1) 0.9292; More

AUD/USD's rally from 0.8734 resumes today and surges to as high as 0.9316 so far. As noted before, medium term rise from 0.6008 is likely still in progress and current rise from 0.8734 should be targeting a retest of 0.9404 first. On the downside, below 0.9121 will argue that a short term top is formed and bring consolidations before another rise.

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Daily Top Movers

Top 5 Current Last Change
(Pips)
Change
(%)
USDCHF 1.0167 1.0236 -69 -0.68%
EURUSD 1.4506 1.4409 +97 +0.67%
AUDUSD 0.9303 0.9245 +58 +0.62%
GBPUSD 1.6108 1.6021 +87 +0.54%
NZDUSD 0.7395 0.7363 +32 +0.43%

Last Updated: Jan 11, 07:30 GMT

Currency Heat Map Daily View

USD EUR JPY GBP CHF CAD AUD
USD
EUR
JPY
GBP

Last Updated: Jan 11, 07:30 GMT

Economic Indicators Update
GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
08:15 CHF Retail Sales (Real) Y/Y Nov 1.90% 3.10%
13:15 CAD Housing Starts Dec 161.8K 158.5K
13:30 CAD Building Permits M/M Nov -2.00% 18.00%
15:30 CAD BoC Business Outlook Survey -- --
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