Tuesday, January 19, 2010

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 1-19-10

ActionForex.com
Action Insight Mid-Day Report

Euro Pressured by Poor ZEW, Sterling Supported by CPI, Dollar Rallies

Euro was sold off after much worse then expected German ZEW. The investor confidence index dropped for the fourth consecutive months in January, and deeper than expected to 47.2 versus 50.4 in December. Eurozone ZEW economic sentiment also unexpectedly dropped to 46.4. The data suggests that German economy is still struggling to maintain momentum for recovery . ZEW president Franz said that "the way out of the recession is burdensome and long." Dollar is helped by weakness in Euro and concern of more tightening measures from China, and much stronger TIC capital flow, and rebounds strongly against most major currencies

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Elliott Wave Analysis

Trade Idea: EUR/JPY - Sell At 131.50, O.C.O. Buy At 129.20

Although the single currency has remained under pressure and the wave (ii) decline from 134.37 should extend weakness towards 129.38 (1.5 times projection of 134.37131.52 measuring from 133.65), reckon 129.04 (1.618 times projection) would contain this wave (ii) and bring strong rebound later in wave (iii).

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Trade Idea: AUD/USD - Buy At 0.9190

Although aussie retreated after rebounding to 0.9279 yesterday and marginal weakness from here is likely, support at 0.9170/74 should hold and bring another rebound and break of resistance at 0.9330 would extend recent rise from 0.8735 towards last year's high of 0.9407 later.

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Featured Technical Report Market Highlights

EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.4346; (P) 1.4373; (R1) 1.4410; More

EUR/USD's fall from 1.4578 resumes after brief recovery and dives to as low as 1.4263 so far. As discussed before, consolidation from 1.4217 should have completed at 1.4578 already after hitting 38.2% retracement of 1.5143 to 1.4217. Intraday bias remains on the downside for the moment and firm break of 1.4256 support will suggest that whole fall from 1.5143 is resuming. In such case, EUR/USD should target 38.2% retracement of 1.2329 to 1.5143 at 1.4068 next. On the upside, though, above 1.4413 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral again and suggest that more consolidation would be seen before fall resumption.

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Daily Top Movers

Top 5 Current Last Change
(Pips)
Change
(%)
GBPCHF 1.6893 1.6744 +149 +0.88%
USDCHF 1.0334 1.0247 +87 +0.84%
CHFJPY 87.91 88.58 -67 -0.76%
EURGBP 0.8743 0.8801 -58 -0.66%
GBPAUD 1.7751 1.7640 +111 +0.63%

Last Updated: Jan 19, 13:35 GMT

Currency Heat Map Daily View

USD EUR JPY GBP CHF CAD AUD
USD
EUR
JPY
GBP

Last Updated: Jan 19, 13:35 GMT

Economic Indicators Update
GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
05:00 JPY Households Confidence Dec 37.6 40.3 39.5
09:30 GBP CPI M/M Dec 0.60% 0.30% 0.30%
09:30 GBP CPI Y/Y Dec 2.90% 2.60% 1.90%
09:30 GBP Core CPI Y/Y Dec 2.80% 2.30% 1.90%
09:30 GBP RPI M/M Dec 0.60% 0.30% 0.30%
09:30 GBP RPI Y/Y Dec 2.40% 2.10% 0.30%
10:00 EUR German ZEW (Economic Sentiment) Jan 47.2 49.8 50.4
10:00 EUR German ZEW (Current Situation) Jan -56.6 -56.2 -60.6
10:00 EUR Eurozone ZEW (Economic Sentiment) Jan 46.4 48.2 48
13:30 CAD Leading Indicators M/M Dec 1.50% 1.00% 1.30%
14:00 CAD BoC Interest Rate Decision 0.25% 0.25% 0.25%
14:00 USD Net Long-term TIC Flows Nov $126.8B $30.0B $20.7B
18:00 USD NAHB Housing Market Index Jan 17 16
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