Monday, January 4, 2010

Action Insight Daily Report 1-5-09

ActionForex.com
Action Insight Daily Report

Yen Rallies on Repatriation, Dollar Soft on Commodity Strength

Dollar remains soft in Asian trading today as equities strengthen broadly following overnight rally in US markets. Nikkei briefly hit a 15 month high of 10756 while Hong Kong HSI is also up 1.9%. Commodities remain firm with crude oil edging higher to 81.89, just shy of 82.0 resistance while gold is staying firm above 1120 level. However, the Japanese yen manages to recovery strongly against dollar and European majors on speculation of large-sized buying on exporters' repatriation.

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Candlesticks & Ichimoku Analysis

Trade Idea: USD/CHF - Sell At 1.0365

Dollar's breach of support at 1.0279 yesterday suggests recent upmove from 0.9910 is still being retraced and consolidation with downside bias is seen for further fall to 1.0200/10 (approx. 50% Fibonacci retracement of 0.9910 to 1.0509) and possibly towards support at 1.0176 (previous resistance turned support) , however, reckon support at 1.0140 would hold from here.

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Trade Idea: GBP/USD - Buy At 1.6040

Despite yesterday's breach of 1.6236, lack of follow through buying and the subsequent retreat from 1.6242 suggest choppy consolidation would take place and as temporary low has been formed earlier at 1.5832, donside should be limited to the Kijun-Sen (now at 1.6037) and bring another rebound later. Above said resistance at 1.6242 would extend near term rise from 1.5832 low for a stronger retracement of recent decline towards 1.6277 (50% Fibonacci retracement of 1.6722-1.5832).

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Trade Idea: EUR/USD - Buy At 1.4345

Euro's breach of resistance at 1.4459 signals a temporary low has indeed been formed at 1.4218 in December and consolidation with upside bias is seen for retracement of recent decline to 1.4503 (previous support turned resistance) and possibly towards 1.4562 (50% Fibonacci retracement of 1.4906 to 1.4218), however, reckon 1.4586-91 resistance would limit upside and reckon 1.4647 (1.618 times projection of 1.4218 to 1.4459 measuring from 1.4257) would cap upside.

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Trade Idea: USD/JPY - Buy At 92.65

Although the greenback rose marginally to 93.22, the subsequent sharp retreat from there suggests a temporary top has been formed and consolidation with downside bias is seen for correction of recent upmove to 91.32 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement of 88.32 to 93.22) and possibly support at 91.12, however, reckon support at 90.78 (previous resistance) would hold and bring another rally later this week.

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Featured Technical Report Market Highlights

USD/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 92.06; (P) 92.63; (R1) 93.08; More.

USD/JPY's break of 91.90 minor support as well as the near term trend rising trend line argues that whole rise from 84.81 has possibly completed at 93.20 already on bearish divergence condition in 4 hours MACD, after just missing 100% projection of 84.81 to 90.75 from 87.36 at 93.30. Intraday bias is flipped back to the downside and further decline should be seen to 38.2% retracement of 84.81 to 93.20 at 89.99 first. Firm break there will affirm this case and target 87.36 support for confirmation. On the upside, however, above 93.20 will indicate that rise from 84.81 may not be over and could still extend to resistance zone of medium term trend line resistance at 95.21 and 55 weeks EMA at 94.26

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Daily Top Movers

Top 5 Current Last Change
(Pips)
Change
(%)
USDJPY 91.68 92.51 -83 -0.91%
NZDJPY 67.47 67.90 -43 -0.64%
AUDJPY 83.94 84.41 -47 -0.56%
USDCAD 1.0362 1.0413 -51 -0.49%
GBPJPY 148.07 148.79 -72 -0.49%

Last Updated: Jan 05, 07:10 GMT

Currency Heat Map Daily View

USD EUR JPY GBP CHF CAD AUD
USD
EUR
JPY
GBP

Last Updated: Jan 05, 07:10 GMT

Economic Indicators Update
GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
23:50 JPY Monetary Base Y/Y Dec 5.20% 3.50% 3.80%
8:55 EUR German Unemployment Change Dec 5K -7K
8:55 EUR German Unemployment Rate Dec 8.10% 8.10%
9:30 GBP PMI Construction Dec 47.3 47
10:00 EUR Eurozone CPI Estimate Y/Y Dec 0.90% 0.60%
13:30 CAD IPPI M/M Nov 0.50% -0.30%
13:30 CAD RMPI M/M Nov 1.10% 2.50%
15:00 USD Pending Home Sales M/M Nov -3.10% 3.70%
15:00 USD Factory Orders Nov 0.50% 0.60%
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