Wednesday, January 13, 2010

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 1-13-10

ActionForex.com
Action Insight Mid-Day Report

Dollar Lower as Euro and Sterling Lifted by Officials' Comments

Dollar lost ground to Euro and Sterling in spite of some hawkish comments from Fed Plosser. Euro was lifted by comments from Greek Finance Minister George Papaconstantinou a bailout of the country is not necessary. Sterling, on the other hand, is still receiving strong support from Sentance's comments and rate speculations. Commodities are steady in consolidation with crude oil hovering around 80 level while gold is trading around 1130.

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Special Report

ECB Preview: Less about Tightening, More about Greece

The ECB is expected to keep the main refinancing rate unchanged at 1% in January. After announcing some liquidity withdrawal measures at the December meeting, the upcoming meeting will likely be a quiet one. President Trichet should describe current interest rates as 'appropriate' and the outlook for growth and inflation 'moderate' with 'broadly balanced' risks to both sides. As Greece is currently preparing the stability program to reduce budget deficit, we expect this will be the focus of the press conference today.

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2010 Currency Outlook: EUR

In the near-term, we see further upside for the euro against the dollar as strong global economic recovery and a broad-based low interest rate environment continues to favor 'higher-yield' assets. Moreover, the disappointing US non-farm payrolls in December evaporated much speculation about an early Fed tightening. Renewed weakness in USD, after a strong recovery in late-2009, should persist for a few months before favorable data emerge again.

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Elliott Wave Analysis

Trade Idea: EUR/JPY - Sell At 133.70

The single currency did drop to 131.64 yesterday as suggested in our previous update and although price has rebounded from intra-day low of 131.51, as temporary top has been formed at 134.37 on Monday, upside should be limited to 133.90/00 and bring another corrective decline to 131.51, break there would bring correction of the rise from 127.32 which is likely to contain weakness, bring another rally later.

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Trade Idea: AUD/USD - Buy At 0.9130, O.C.O. Sell At 0.9300

Although aussie's intra-day rebound suggests consolidation with initial upside bias would be seen, as yesterday's fall to 0.9170 signals the wave (v) as well as wave iii has possibly ended at 0.9326, suggesting upside would be limited and bring another leg of wave iv (tentatively minor c leg) to 0.9170, then towards 0.9122 (previous 4th of one lesser degree), however, reckon 0.9100/05 would limit downside, bring another rally in wave v later.

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Featured Technical Report Market Highlights

GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6087; (P) 1.6140; (R1) 1.6219; More

GBP/USD's rebound extends further to as high as 1.6293 so far today. At this point, intraday bias remains on the upside and the corrective rise from 1.5829 is still expected to continue to 100% projection of 1.5829 to 1.6327 from 1.5896 at 1.6304 and above. Nevertheless, we'd still expect upside to be limited below 61.8% retracement of 1.6875 to 1.5829 at 1.6475 and bring resumption of the whole fall from 1.6875. On the downside, below 1.6192 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first. Further break of 1.6062 support will indicate that such correction has possibly completed and recent fall is resuming for 1.5829 and below.

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Daily Top Movers

Top 5 Current Last Change
(Pips)
Change
(%)
GBPJPY 148.83 147.06 +177 +1.19%
AUDJPY 84.59 83.68 +91 +1.08%
EURJPY 133.14 131.78 +136 +1.02%
CADJPY 88.43 87.54 +89 +1.01%
NZDJPY 67.74 67.16 +58 +0.86%

Last Updated: Jan 13, 14:30 GMT

Currency Heat Map Daily View

USD EUR JPY GBP CHF CAD AUD
USD
EUR
JPY
GBP

Last Updated: Jan 13, 14:30 GMT

Economic Indicators Update
GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
-- GBP NIESR GDP Estimate Dec -- 0.20%
6:00 JPY Machine Tool Orders Y/Y Dec P 62.80% -- -8.60% -8.40%
9:30 GBP Industrial Production M/M Nov 0.40% 0.30% 0.00%
9:30 GBP Industrial Production Y/Y Nov -6.00% -6.10% -8.40%
9:30 GBP Manufacturing Production M/M Nov 0.00% 0.20% 0.00%
9:30 GBP Manufacturing Production Y/Y Nov -5.40% -5.10% -7.80%
15:30 USD Crude Oil Inventories 1.4M 1.3M
19:00 USD Fed Beige Book -- --
19:00 USD Monthly Budget Statement Dec -84.9B -120.3B
Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights

 

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