Tuesday, January 26, 2010

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 1-26-10

ActionForex.com
Action Insight Mid-Day Report

JPY Firm on Risk Aversion after Rating Jittery, GBP Tumbled on GDP Disappointment

Japanese yen had some jittery today but still managed to gain broadly on risk aversion. Sterling tumbled after release of worse than expected GDP data. Dollar continues to strengthen against major currencies except yen. The greenback is supported as crude oil fails to get hold of 75 level while gold is dropped back below 1090.

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Special Report

FOMC Preview: Current Conditions Warrant Low Interest Rates

The Fed is expected to keep the policy rate unchanged at 0-0.25% at the January meeting. While there have signs showing improvement in economic outlook, job markets remained the area the Fed concerned the most. The number of payrolls unexpectedly plunged -85K in December, compared with consensus of no change from November, while the unemployment rate stayed at 10%. The Fed will wait until unemployment rate has dropped substantially before considering rate hikes.

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Elliott Wave Analysis

Trade Idea: EUR/JPY - Sell At 128.35, O.C.O. Buy At 124.85

Despite intra-day brief bounce to 128.38, the single currency met renewed selling interest there and resumed recent decline, suggesting the wave c from 134.37 is still in progress and weakness towards 124.83/85 (50% projection of 133.65 to 126.55 measuring from 128.38) cannot be ruled out before prospect of another rebound later.

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Trade Idea: AUD/USD - Buy At 0.8920

The Australian dollar has fallen after meeting renewed selling below resistance at 0.9093 and although weakness towards 0.8910 cannot be ruled out, reckon downside would be limited to 0.8878 (61.8% projection of 0.9331 to 0.8983 measuring from 0.9093) would hold from here and bring rebound due to loss of downward momentum.

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Featured Technical Report Market Highlights

GBP/JPY Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 145.24; (P) 145.98; (R1) 147.33; More

GBP/JPY's break of 144.58 confirms that fall from 150.68 has resumed and the cross should now be targeting 141.99 support next. Break there will further affirm the case that consolidation from 139.69 has completed at 150.68 alrady and whole decline from 163.05 is resuming. In such case, deeper decline should be seen to retest 139.26 low next. On the upside, though, above 147.25 minor resistance will mix up the near term outlook and we'll turn neutral first in such case.

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Daily Top Movers

Top 5 Current Last Change
(Pips)
Change
(%)
NZDJPY 63.24 64.42 -118 -1.87%
AUDJPY 80.34 81.60 -126 -1.57%
GBPJPY 144.56 146.60 -204 -1.41%
CHFJPY 85.70 86.81 -111 -1.30%
CADJPY 84.24 85.32 -108 -1.28%

Last Updated: Jan 26, 13:50 GMT

Currency Heat Map Daily View

USD EUR JPY GBP CHF CAD AUD
USD
EUR
JPY
GBP

Last Updated: Jan 26, 13:50 GMT

Economic Indicators Update
GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
23:50 JPY Corporate Service Price Y/Y Dec 1.50% -1.40% -2.00% -2.20%
3:30 JPY BoJ Interest Rate Decision 0.10% 0.10% 0.10%
7:00 EUR German Import Price Index M/M Dec 0.50% 0.00% 0.40%
7:00 CHF UBS Consumption Indicator Dec 1.195 -- 1.276 1.255
9:00 EUR German IFO - Expectations Jan 100.6 99.1 99.1 98.9
9:00 EUR German IFO - Business Climate Jan 95.8 95.2 94.7 94.6
9:00 EUR German IFO - Current Assessment Jan 91.2 91.3 90.5 30.4
9:00 EUR Eurozone Current Account (EUR) Nov 0.1B -3.1B -4.6B
9:30 GBP GDP Q/Q Q4 A 0.10% 0.40% -0.20%
9:30 GBP GDP Y/Y Q4 A -3.20% -3.00% -5.10%
9:30 GBP Index of Services 3M/3M Nov 0.10% 0.40% -0.20%
14:00 USD S&P/Case-Shiller Composite-20 Y/Y Nov -5.00% -7.28%
15:00 USD Consumer Confidence Jan 53.5 52.9
15:00 USD House Price Index M/M Nov 0.50% 0.60%
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