Thursday, January 28, 2010

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 1-28-10

ActionForex.com
Action Insight Mid-Day Report

Yen Fights Back as US Data Disappoint

After being pressured for most of the day on rebound in Asian and European stocks, the Japanese yen is trying to fight back in early US session after jobless claims and headline durable goods orders from US disappoint the markets. Dollar remains steady in range against European majors and retreats against commodity currencies. Euro got little support from generally positive confidence indicators released today and remains soft. Meanwhile, Sterling continues to benefit from selling in EUR/GBP and rebounds against dollar and yen.

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Special Reports

RBNZ Review - January: Less Uncertainty, Higher Possibility To Hike Rate By 2Q10

As expected, the RBNZ left the OCR unchanged at 2.5%. The accompanying statement was a short one as much uncertainty about recovery was removed. Also, the central bank reiterated December' stance that removal of policy stimulus will start around the middle of 2010 if the economy continues to recover.

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FOMC Review – January: Slightly More Hawkish Than Anticipated

The January FOMC statement showed slightly more hashish tone on economic growth though the overall stance remained unchanged – the Fed funds rate will be kept at 0-0.25% and 'economic conditions, including low rates of resource utilization, subdued inflation trends, and stable inflation expectations, are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate for an extended period'. Kansa City Fed President Thomas Hoenig's dissent to keep the 'extended period' phrase was also surprising and signaled there might more hawks appearing later this year.

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2010 Currency Outlook: JPY

Narrowing of US-Japan yield gap and the 'laissez-faire' stance of the Japanese government were the main reasons accelerating Japanese yen's rally against the dollar in 2H09. 3-month LIBOR for USD-denominated loans has been trading been below that of yen-denominated loans since August 24 while USDJPY plummeted to as low as 84.82, a level never seen after 1995, in November. Not until a stronger-than-expected November employment report in the US which spurred speculations of an earlier (by June) Fed rate hike had the dollar rebounded against the yen. However, the yen remains strong compared with historical average.

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Elliott Wave Analysis

Trade Idea: EUR/JPY - Sell At 128.35, O.C.O. Buy At 124.85

Although the single currency rebound after marginal fall to 125.23 yesterday and consolidation would be seen, reckon upside would be limited to 128.38 and bring another decline later towards 124.83/85 (50% projection of 133.65 to 126.55 measuring from 128.38), however, loss of momentum should limit downside to 124.40/50 and bring rebound later.

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Trade Idea: AUD/USD - Hold Long Entered At 0.8910

Although the Australian dollar fell to as low as 0.8910, as the currency pair rebounded from there, suggesting the minor wave 5 of the c leg has possibly ended there and consolidation with upside bias remains for gain to 0.9090/95 but break there is needed to confirm and extend gain towards 0.9140/50 but reckon resistance at 0.9174 (wave a trough) should hold.

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Featured Technical Report Market Highlights

EUR/JPY Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 125.50; (P) 125.94; (R1) 126.66; More.

EUR/JPY's recovery from 125.22 was limited at 127.06 so far and weakens again in early US session. Intraday bias remains neutral for the moment, as sideway consolidation might continue. Nevertheless, even in case of another rise, upside is expected to be limited by 128.35 resistance and bring fall resumption. Below 125.22 will target 124.35 support and then 100% projection of 138.47 to 126.88 from 134.36 at 122.77 next.

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Daily Top Movers

Top 5 Current Last Change
(Pips)
Change
(%)
EURAUD 1.5519 1.5659 -140 -0.90%
EURGBP 0.8607 0.8670 -63 -0.73%
AUDJPY 81.15 80.56 +59 +0.73%
AUDUSD 0.9016 0.8952 +64 +0.71%
GBPCHF 1.7095 1.6977 +118 +0.69%

Last Updated: Jan 28, 13:55 GMT

Currency Heat Map Daily View

USD EUR JPY GBP CHF CAD AUD
USD
EUR
JPY
GBP

Last Updated: Jan 28, 13:55 GMT

Economic Indicators Update
GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
20:00 NZD RBNZ Interest Rate Decision 2.50% 2.50% 2.50%
23:50 JPY Retail Trade Y/Y Dec -0.30% 0.30% -1.00% -1.10%
08:55 EUR German Unemployment Change Jan 6K 17K -3K
08:55 EUR German Unemployment Rate Jan 8.20% 8.20% 8.10%
10:00 EUR Eurozone Economic Confidence Jan 95.7 92.3 91.3 94.1
10:00 EUR Eurozone Consumer Confidence Jan -16 -15 -16
10:00 EUR Eurozone Industrial Confidence Jan -14 -15 -16
10:00 EUR Eurozone Services Confidence Jan -1 -3 -3
13:30 USD Durable Goods Orders Dec 0.30% 2.00% 0.20% -0.40%
13:30 USD Durables Ex-Transport Dec 0.90% 0.30% 2.00% 2.10%
13:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims 470K 452K 482K
15:30 USD Natural Gas Storage -102B -245B
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