Thursday, January 21, 2010

Action Insight Daily Report 1-22-10

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Action Insight Daily Report

Yen Surged as Stocks Tumbled on Obama's Bank Proposal

Yen surged across the board as Obama's proposal to curb excessive risk taking by banks sent US stocks broadly lower. DOW dropped -2.01% to close at 1.0389 while S&P 500 dropped -1.89% to close at 1116.48. Asia stocks followed, on additional pressure from speculation that China will raise interest rates by 27 basis point today to cool inflation and lending. Nikkei 225 is down -2.56% to 10590 level. USD/JPY dropped through 90 level overnight and is extending recent decline from 93.74 towards next near term support at 87.36. EUR/JPY breached 126.88 key support level and is struggling that and sustained trading below this support will confirm medium term reversal. After staying in tight range for some time, GBP/JPY also had a downside breakout overnight and dropped through 145.96 support to turn short term outlook bearish for 139/40 level.

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Special Report

2010 Currency Outlook: GBP

Since January 2007, the pound has dropped -23.5% against its major trading partners with the decline against the euro slightly more than that against the dollar. Although the pound managed to gained against most of these partners in 2009, much of the return was erased in the second half of the year as BOE committed to adopt extremely loose monetary policies and economic contraction was more serious than previously anticipated.

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Candlesticks & Ichimoku Analysis

Trade Idea: USD/JPY - Sell At 91.00

Yesterday's breach of support at 90.31 confirms the decline from 93.78 has resumed and further weakness to89.50 is seen, however, as this move is still treated as correction of early upmove from 84.82, reckon downside would be limited to 88.83 support and price should stay well above next support at 88.32, bring a strong rebound probably next week.

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Trade Idea: EUR/USD - Sell At 1.4220

Euro's rebound after holding above yesterday's low at 1.4029 suggests consolidation would be seen and retracement towards the Kijun-Sen (now at 1.4222) cannot be ruled out, however, renewed selling interest should emerge there (this is also the 50% Fibonacci retracement of 1.4415 to 1.4029) and resistance at 1.4257-64 (previous support turned resistance) should hold, bring another decline later to 1.4015 (50% Fibonacci retracement of 1.2885 to 1.5145) but reckon 1.3950 would hold on first testing due to loss of downward momentum.

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Featured Technical Report Market Highlights

USD/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 89.74; (P) 90.80; (R1) 91.50; More.

USDJPY's break of 90.30 support indicates that whole fall from 83.74 has resumed. Intraday bias is flipped back to the downside for 87.36 support next. As noted before, break there will confirm the bearish case that whole rebound from 84.81 has completed with three waves up to 93.74 already. This will also argue that medium term down trend is resuming for a new low below 84.81. On the upside, above 90.56 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral and bring recovery. But upside should be limited below 91.86 resistance and bring fall resumption.

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Daily Top Movers

Top 5 Current Last Change
(Pips)
Change
(%)
NZDUSD 0.7146 0.7099 +47 +0.66%
AUDUSD 0.9044 0.9000 +44 +0.49%
NZDJPY 64.44 64.19 +25 +0.39%
GBPAUD 1.7926 1.7989 -63 -0.35%
AUDCAD 0.9498 0.9470 +28 +0.29%

Last Updated: Jan 22, 07:05 GMT

Currency Heat Map Daily View

USD EUR JPY GBP CHF CAD AUD
USD
EUR
JPY
GBP

Last Updated: Jan 22, 07:05 GMT

Economic Indicators Update
GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
0:30 AUD Import Price Index Q/Q Q4 -4.30% -1.80% -3.00%
4:30 JPY All Industry Activity Index M/M Nov 0.10% 0.10% 1.20% 1.10%
9:30 GBP Retail Sales M/M Dec 1.10% -0.30%
9:30 GBP Retail Sales Y/Y Dec 3.00% 3.10%
10:00 EUR Eurozone Industrial New Orders M/M Nov 0.50% -2.20%
10:00 EUR Eurozone Industrial New Orders Y/Y Nov -7.10% -14.50%
13:30 CAD Retail Sales M/M Nov -0.30% 0.80%
13:30 CAD Retail Sales Less Autos M/M Nov 0.20% 0.20%
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Technical Highlights

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