Tuesday, January 5, 2010

Action Insight Daily Report 1-6-10

ActionForex.com
Action Insight Daily Report

Dollar Resuming Recent Rise, Services and Job Data ahead

Dollar recovered overnight as rally in crude oil stalled ahead of 82.0 resistance while gold retreats ahead of 1130 level. The greenback is regathering some strength in early European session as gold's recovery lost steam and is back pressing 1120 level. The technical picture of dollar index suggests that recent rally is possibly ready to resume but the development will depend on risk sentiments, which could be heavily affected by the services and job data today, as well as FOMC minutes.

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Candlesticks & Ichimoku Analysis

Trade Idea: USD/CHF - Stand Aside

As dollar has maintained a firm undertone after rebounding from yesterday's low of 1.0253, suggesting upside risk remains and test of resistance at 1.0422, however, only a sustain breach of this level would confirm the correction from 1.0509 has ended at 1.0253 and bring further gain towards 1.0480/90, then retest of 1.0509. Once this resistance is penetrated, this would signal the upmove from 0.9910 (2009 low) has resumed for headway to 1.0550/60, then towards 1.0592 (previous support turned resistance).

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Trade Idea: GBP/USD - Sell At 1.6100

As cable has fallen again after brief recovery, suggesting the correction from 1.5832 has possibly ended at 1.6242 and downside bias is seen for further fall to 1.5900, however, break of said support is needed to confirm recent decline has resumed and extend weakness to 1.5790/00. Having said that, as broad outlook remains consolidative, downside would be limited and chart support at 1.5708 should continue to hold.

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Trade Idea: EUR/USD - Exit Long Entered At 1.4335

Euro's retreat from 1.4485 turned out to be stronger than expected and further fall towards support at 1.4257 cannot be ruled out, however, break there is needed to confirm the correction from 1.4218 has ended at 1.4485 earlier and bring resumption of recent decline from 1.5145 top for retest of said support, then towards 1.4140/50 later.

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Trade Idea: USD/JPY - Sell At 92.65

As dollar has rebounded after trading above yesterday's low of 91.25, suggesting consolidation with mild upside bias would be seen and whilst gain to 92.65/70 cannot be ruled out, as temporary top has been formed at 93.22, this resistance would continue to hold and bring another retreat later. Below said support would bring retracement of recent upmove towards 90.78 (previous resistance), however, reckon the Ichimoku cloud bottom (now at 90.62) would limit downside and 90.29 (50% Fibonacci retracement of 87.36 to 93.22) should hold, bring another rally later this week.

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Featured Technical Report Market Highlights

EUR/USD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.4312; (P) 1.4398; (R1) 1.4449; More

EUR/USD falls sharply in early European session and the development argues that consolidations from 1.4217 is possibly completed with three waves up to 1.4483 already. Intraday bias is cautiously on the downside for 1.4256 support first and break will indicate that whole decline from 1.5143 is resuming. In such case, next target will be 38.2% retracement of 1.2329 to 1.5143 at 1.4068. On the upside, above 1.4373 will delay the immediate bearish view and suggest that consolidations is still in progress. Nevertheless, upside is still expected to be limited by 38.2% retracement of 1.5143 to 1.4217 at 1.4571 and bring fall resumption.

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Daily Top Movers

Top 5 Current Last Change
(Pips)
Change
(%)
EURUSD 1.4299 1.4364 -65 -0.45%
NZDUSD 0.7312 0.7344 -32 -0.44%
USDJPY 92.10 91.70 +40 +0.43%
EURAUD 1.5687 1.5751 -64 -0.41%
AUDNZD 1.2458 1.2409 +49 +0.39%

Last Updated: Jan 06, 07:05 GMT

Currency Heat Map Daily View

USD EUR JPY GBP CHF CAD AUD
USD
EUR
JPY
GBP

Last Updated: Jan 06, 07:05 GMT

Economic Indicators Update
GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
00:01 GBP Nationwide Consumer Confidence Dec 69 72 73 74
00:01 GBP BRC Shop Price Index Dec 2.20% -- 0.20%
08:55 EUR German PMI Services Dec F 53.1 53.1
09:00 EUR Eurozone PMI Services Dec F 53.7 53
09:30 GBP PMI Services Dec 56.9 56.6
10:00 EUR Eurozone PPI M/M Nov 0.20% 0.20%
10:00 EUR Eurozone PPI Y/Y Nov -4.50% -6.70%
10:00 EUR Eurozone Industrial New Orders M/M Oct -1.00% 1.50%
10:00 EUR Eurozone Industrial New Orders Y/Y Oct -11.00% -16.50%
12:30 USD Challenger Job Cuts Y/Y Dec -- -72.30%
13:15 USD ADP Employment Change Dec -75K -169K
15:00 USD ISM Non-Manufacturing Composite Dec 50.5 48.7
15:30 USD Crude Oil Inventories -0.4M -1.5M
19:00 USD FOMC Policy Meeting Minutes -- --
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