Wednesday, January 27, 2010

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 1-27-10

ActionForex.com
Action Insight Mid-Day Report

Sterling Lifted by BoE Sentance, Dollar Steady, FOMC Next

While dollar continue to consolidate in range ahead of FOMC rate decision and statement today, Sterling was boosted by hawkish comments from BoE official. BoE Sentance warned that it's hard to keep inflation on target if import and services price continue to go up and argued that the "MPC must be ready to adapt its policies to the changing economic situation over the course of the recovery." He said that he has seen, in the last six to nine months, "more positive trend emerging in both the UK economy as a whole and more specifically in the housing market".He is also confidence that there will be no "double dip" recession as long as " the international economy continues to grow healthily". The comments affirm market's view that BoE will pause the asset purchase program next week and will probably start discussion on timing for withdrawal of the stimulus.

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2010 Currency Outlook: JPY

Narrowing of US-Japan yield gap and the 'laissez-faire' stance of the Japanese government were the main reasons accelerating Japanese yen's rally against the dollar in 2H09. 3-month LIBOR for USD-denominated loans has been trading been below that of yen-denominated loans since August 24 while USDJPY plummeted to as low as 84.82, a level never seen after 1995, in November. Not until a stronger-than-expected November employment report in the US which spurred speculations of an earlier (by June) Fed rate hike had the dollar rebounded against the yen. However, the yen remains strong compared with historical average.

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FOMC Preview: Current Conditions Warrant Low Interest Rates

The Fed is expected to keep the policy rate unchanged at 0-0.25% at the January meeting. While there have signs showing improvement in economic outlook, job markets remained the area the Fed concerned the most. The number of payrolls unexpectedly plunged -85K in December, compared with consensus of no change from November, while the unemployment rate stayed at 10%. The Fed will wait until unemployment rate has dropped substantially before considering rate hikes.

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Elliott Wave Analysis

Trade Idea: EUR/JPY - Buy At 124.85

Euro's intra-day selloff to 125.30 suggests the decline from 134.37 is still in progress and weakness towards 124.83/85 (50% projection of 133.65 to 126.55 measuring from 128.38) cannot be ruled out, however, loss of momentum should limit downside to 124.40/50 and bring rebound later.

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Trade Idea: AUD/USD - Buy At 0.8910

Despite intra-day brief bounce to 0.9046, the retreat from there suggests the decline from 0.9331 may still extend one more fall to 0.8910, however, reckon downside would be limited to 0.8878 (61.8% projection of 0.9331 to 0.8983 measuring from 0.9093) and bring rebound due to loss of downward momentum.

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Featured Technical Report Market Highlights

GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6066; (P) 1.6167; (R1) 1.6241; More

GBP/USD's strong rebound today suggests that consolidation from 1.6077 is still in progress and turns intraday bias neutral. Nevertheless, we'd continue to expect another fall as long as 1.6284 resistance holds. As discussed before, corrective rise from 1.5829 should have completed with three waves up to 1.6456 already and whole decline from 1.6875 should be resuming. Break of 1.5829 will confirm this bearish case and target 1.5706 key cluster support. On the upside, though, above 1.6284 minor resistance will delay the bearish view and turn focus back 1.6456 resistance

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Daily Top Movers

Top 5 Current Last Change
(Pips)
Change
(%)
GBPCAD 1.7232 1.7148 +84 +0.49%
CADJPY 83.95 84.35 -40 -0.48%
NZDJPY 63.15 63.45 -30 -0.48%
EURGBP 0.8676 0.8716 -40 -0.46%
GBPAUD 1.8042 1.7961 +81 +0.45%

Last Updated: Jan 27, 14:50 GMT

Currency Heat Map Daily View

USD EUR JPY GBP CHF CAD AUD
USD
EUR
JPY
GBP

Last Updated: Jan 27, 14:50 GMT

Economic Indicators Update
GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
23:30 AUD Westpac Leading Index M/M Nov 1.00% -- 0.40% 0.50%
23:50 JPY Trade Balance (JPY) Dec 0.52T 0.61T 0.49T 0.52T
0:30 AUD CPI Q/Q Q4 0.50% 0.40% 1.00%
0:30 AUD CPI Y/Y Q4 2.10% 2.00% 1.30%
0:30 AUD CPI RBA Trimmed Mean Q/Q Q4 0.60% 0.60% 0.80%
0:30 AUD CPI RBA Trimmed Mean Y/Y Q4 3.20% 3.20% 3.20%
0:30 AUD CPI RBA Weighted Median Q/Q Q4 0.70% 0.60% 0.80%
0:30 AUD CPI RBA Weighted Median Y/Y Q4 3.60% 3.50% 3.80%
5:00 JPY BoJ Monthly Report -- --
11:00 GBP U.K. CBI Distributive Trades Jan 11 13
15:00 USD New Home Sales Dec 370K 355K
15:30 USD Crude Oil Inventories 1.4M -0.4M
19:15 USD FOMC Interest Rate Decision 0.25% 0.25%
20:00 NZD RBNZ Interest Rate Decision 2.50% 2.50%
-- EUR German CPI M/M Jan P -0.30% 0.80%
-- EUR German CPI Y/Y Jan P 1.00% 0.90%
-- EUR German HICP M/M Jan P -0.40% 0.90%
-- EUR German HICP Y/Y Jan P 1.00% 0.80%
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