Wednesday, January 13, 2010

Action Insight Daily Report 1-14-10

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Action Insight Daily Report

Yen Lower, Aussie Strengthens, ECB in Focus

Yen weakens broadly in Asian on stock rally as well as on comments from Finance Minister Naoto Kan. Kan said that some nations might bring up the issue of Chinese Yuan in the upcoming G7 meeting in Canada and he's prepared to comments on that. Also, Kan expressed that there are still "various measures that could be taken " by BoJ in guiding monetary policy to support the economy. Nevertheless, he again toned down his call by a weaker yen by reiterating that exchange rates should be set by the markets unless there are rapid moves.

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Special Report

Beige Book Review – Economic Outlook Improving But Still Slow

Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Wednesday released the Beige Book based on information collected in late November through January 4, 2010. 10 out of 12 districts showed economic improvement in the reporting period, suggesting a broadening of recovery. However, over improvement remained at low level compared with pre-recession level in 2007.

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ECB Preview: Less about Tightening, More about Greece

The ECB is expected to keep the main refinancing rate unchanged at 1% in January. After announcing some liquidity withdrawal measures at the December meeting, the upcoming meeting will likely be a quiet one. President Trichet should describe current interest rates as 'appropriate' and the outlook for growth and inflation 'moderate' with 'broadly balanced' risks to both sides. As Greece is currently preparing the stability program to reduce budget deficit, we expect this will be the focus of the press conference today.

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Candlesticks & Ichimoku Analysis

Trade Idea: USD/CHF - Sell At 1.0255

As the greenback has remained sidelined, suggesting further consolidation would take place and as long as support at 1.0130 holds, prospect of another corrective rebound to 1.0220 remains, however, renewed selling interest should emerge around the Kijun-Sen (now at 1.0258) and bring another decline. Break of said support would confirm the fall from 1.0509 top has resumed and bring at least a stronger retracement of recent upmove from 0.9910 to 1.0100 but the greenback should stay well above 1.0050 due to loss of near term downward momentum.

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Trade Idea: GBP/USD - Buy At 1.6150

As the British pound has maintained a firm undertone after breaking resistance at 1.6242, suggesting the rise from 1.5832 low remains in progress and would bring stronger retracement of recent decline from 1.6879 (100% projection of 1.5832 to 1.6242 measuring from 1.5896 at 1.6306 has already been met) to 1.6356/61 (50% Fibonacci retracement of 1.6879 to 1.5832 and 100% projection of 1.5896 to 1.6194 measuring from 1.6063), however, reckon resistance at 1.6412 would hold from here due to overbought condition.

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Trade Idea: EUR/USD - Stand Aside

Despite rising to 1.4580 yesterday, lack of follow through buying suggests consolidation would be seen initially today and retreat to the support area at 1.4453 cannot be ruled out, however, only break of the Kijun-Sen (now at 1.4421) would confirm a top has been formed, then swift fall to the Ichimoku cloud area (1.4370-72) would follow. Looking ahead, it is necessary to see a sustain breach of the Kumo to suggest the correction from 1.4218 has possibly ended and extend weakness towards 1.4257-64 support area, otherwise, choppy consolidation would continue.

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Trade Idea: USD/JPY - Sell At 92.45

Although the greenback has continued to edge higher on short-covering, suggesting the first leg of decline from 93.78 has ended at 90.73 earlier and mild upside bias would be seen for rebound to 92.10 (current level of the Kijun-Sen), reckon 92.61 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 93.78 to 90.73)) would attract renewed selling interest, bring another decline.

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Featured Technical Report Market Highlights

AUD/USD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9196; (P) 0.9232; (R1) 0.9275; More

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains neutral for the moment as consolidations from 0.9321 might still continue. Nevertheless, in case of another fall, downside should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 0.8734 to 0.9324 at 0.9099 and bring rally resumption . ABove 0.9324 will suggest that whole rise from 0.8734 has resumed and should target a test on 0.9404 resistance next.

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All Technical Outlook Reports

Daily Top Movers

Top 5 Current Last Change
(Pips)
Change
(%)
AUDJPY 85.32 84.42 +90 +1.05%
AUDUSD 0.9312 0.9240 +72 +0.77%
AUDCAD 0.9593 0.9524 +69 +0.72%
GBPAUD 1.7504 1.7613 -109 -0.62%
NZDJPY 68.03 67.63 +40 +0.59%

Last Updated: Jan 14, 07:15 GMT

Currency Heat Map Daily View

USD EUR JPY GBP CHF CAD AUD
USD
EUR
JPY
GBP

Last Updated: Jan 14, 07:15 GMT

Economic Indicators Update
GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
23:50 JPY Machine Orders M/M Nov -11.30% 0.30% -4.50%
23:50 JPY Machine Orders Y/Y Nov -20.50% -10.10% -21.00%
23:50 JPY Domestic CGPI Y/Y Dec -3.90% -3.80% -4.90% -5.00%
0:30 AUD Employment Change Dec 35.2K 10.0K 31.2K 31.4K
0:30 AUD Unemployment Rate Dec 5.50% 5.80% 5.70% 5.60%
7:00 EUR German CPI M/M Dec F 0.70% 0.70%
7:00 EUR German CPI Y/Y Dec F 0.80% 0.80%
10:00 EUR Eurozone Industrial Production M/M Nov 0.50% -0.60%
10:00 EUR Eurozone Industrial Production Y/Y Nov -8.40% -11.10%
12:45 EUR ECB Interest Rate Decision 1.00% 1.00%
13:30 EUR ECB Press Conference -- --
13:30 USD Advance Retail Sales Dec 0.40% 1.30%
13:30 USD Retail Sales Less Autos Dec 0.30% 1.20%
13:30 USD Import Price Index M/M Dec -0.10% 1.70%
13:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims 438K 434K
15:00 USD Business Inventories Nov 0.00% 0.20%
15:30 USD Natural Gas Storage -255B -153B
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