Monday, January 18, 2010

Action Insight Daily Report 1-19-10

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Action Insight Daily Report

Yen Climbs as China Hikes Yield again, UK CPI and BoC in Focus

Yen rises broadly in Asia today as China, once again, guided its one-year bill higher to curb lending growth. PBoC sold the 1 year bill at 1.9264% in open market operations, up +0.08% from last week. This is the second time in a month the PBoC guided the 1-year bill yield higher after raising yield on 3 month bills and raising reserve requirements earlier. USD/JPY dives through last week's low and is now set to take on 90 level while EUR/JPY also resumes recent fall.

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Special Report

BOC Preview: Monetary Stance Unchanged

In the upcoming meeting on January 19, the Bank of Canada will likely keep the overnight rate unchanged at 0.25% and reiterated the monetary stance will remain 'until the end of the second quarter of 2010 in order to achieve the inflation target'.

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Candlesticks & Ichimoku Analysis

Trade Idea: EUR/USD - Sell At 1.4500

Euro's recovery after yesterday's fall to 1.4335 suggests consolidation with mild upside bias would be seen for correction of the fall from 1.4580 and gain to 1.4456-57 (current level of the Ichimoku cloud top and Kijun-Sen) is likely, however, reckon 1.4500 would attract renewed selling interest and bring another decline later. Below said support would extend weakness towards 1.4257-64 support area but break there is needed to confirm correction from 1.4218 has ended, then recent decline from 1.5145 top should resume later for retest of 1.4218.

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Trade Idea: USD/JPY - Sell At 91.80

As the greenback has remained weak after breaking support at 90.60, suggesting the decline from 93.78 is still in progress and further weakness to 90.00 is likely, however, loss of near term downward momentum would limit downside to 89.50 and reckon 89.00 (100% projection of 93.78 to 90.73 measuring from 92.05) would limit downside and support at 88.83 would hold, bring rebound later.

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Featured Technical Report Market Highlights

USD/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 90.58; (P) 90.82; (R1)91.02; More.

USD/JPY drops further to as low as 90.34 so far today as fall from 93.74 continues. As noted before, whole rise from 84.81 has likely completed with three waves up to 93.74 already. Further fall should be seen to 87.36 support first and break there will confirm this bearish case. IN such case, medium term down trend should be resuming for another low below 84.81. On the upside, above 92.03 minor resistance will suggests that fall from 93.74 has made an intraday low and will turn bias neutral for some sideway consolidation. But risk will remain on the downside as long as 93.74 resistance holds and another fall is still expected after the consolidations.

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Daily Top Movers

Top 5 Current Last Change
(Pips)
Change
(%)
GBPAUD 1.7741 1.7640 +101 +0.57%
GBPUSD 1.6417 1.6340 +77 +0.47%
AUDJPY 83.70 84.07 -37 -0.44%
GBPCAD 1.6834 1.6765 +69 +0.41%
GBPCHF 1.6810 1.6744 +66 +0.39%

Last Updated: Jan 19, 07:00 GMT

Currency Heat Map Daily View

USD EUR JPY GBP CHF CAD AUD
USD
EUR
JPY
GBP

Last Updated: Jan 19, 07:00 GMT

Economic Indicators Update
GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
5:00 JPY Households Confidence Dec 37.6 40.3 39.5
9:30 GBP CPI M/M Dec 0.30% 0.30%
9:30 GBP CPI Y/Y Dec 2.60% 1.90%
9:30 GBP Core CPI Y/Y Dec 2.30% 1.90%
9:30 GBP RPI M/M Dec 0.30% 0.30%
9:30 GBP RPI Y/Y Dec 2.10% 0.30%
10:00 EUR German ZEW (Economic Sentiment) Jan 50 50.4
10:00 EUR German ZEW (Current Situation) Jan -56.2 -60.6
10:00 EUR Eurozone ZEW (Economic Sentiment) Jan 48 48
13:30 CAD Leading Indicators M/M Dec 1.00% 1.30%
14:00 CAD BoC Interest Rate Decision 0.25% 0.25%
14:00 USD Net Long-term TIC Flows Nov $30.0B $20.7B
18:00 USD NAHB Housing Market Index Jan 17 16
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