Friday, January 22, 2010

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 1-22-10

ActionForex.com
Action Insight Mid-Day Report

Sterling Lower on Retail Sales, Risk Aversion Back

Risk aversion is back after taking a brief breath in European session as major European stock indices dive. Sterling is taking the lead this time after disappointment from retail sales data. Meanwhile, Canadian dollar is following closely after crude oil fails to sustain above 76 level and weakens again. Also, Canadian retail sales is a disappointment. US president Obama's proposal to curb proprietary trading will remain the major theme in today's market. Yen crosses continue to be vulnerable to equity market weakness. Though, the greenback would probably continue to consolidate against Euro as both are pressured in yen crosses.

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Special Report

2010 Currency Outlook: GBP

Since January 2007, the pound has dropped -23.5% against its major trading partners with the decline against the euro slightly more than that against the dollar. Although the pound managed to gained against most of these partners in 2009, much of the return was erased in the second half of the year as BOE committed to adopt extremely loose monetary policies and economic contraction was more serious than previously anticipated.

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Elliott Wave Analysis

Trade Idea: EUR/JPY - Sell at 129.50

Intra-day selloff below 126.95 support to 126.55 suggests the 3rd set of a-b-c of larger degree wave 2 is still in progress and only b leg ended at 134.37 (with a – 134.54, b – 127.32 and c – 134.37), hence c leg is now underway with minor wave i ended at 131.52, ii at 133.65 and wave iii has possibly ended at 126.55, so the rebound from there suggests wave iv is unfolding which may bring correction towards 129.50 (yesterday's high) before prospect of another selloff later.

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Trade Idea: AUD/USD - Hold long entered at 0.9030

Despite intra-day brief fall to 0.8983, the rebound from there suggests consolidation with mild upside bias would be seen, however, only break of yesterday's high of 0.9147 would confirm low has been formed, then stronger rebound to 0.9175 (previous support turned resistance), above there would signal the correction from 0.9330 is over and headway to 0.9200 and 0.9250 would follow.

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Featured Technical Report Market Highlights

GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6108; (P) 1.6210; (R1) 1.6295; More

GBP/USD's fall resumes after brief recovery and at this point, intraday bias remains on the downside for 1.5829 low. Break there will confirm that whole decline from 1.6875 has resumed and should target key cluster support level at 1.5706. On the upside, above 1.6284 will delay the bearish view and turn focus back to 61.8% retracement of 1.6875 to 1.5829 at 1.6475.

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Daily Top Movers

Top 5 Current Last Change
(Pips)
Change
(%)
GBPAUD 1.7803 1.7989 -186 -1.04%
EURGBP 0.8762 0.8695 +67 +0.76%
AUDCAD 0.9540 0.9470 +70 +0.73%
GBPCHF 1.6773 1.6885 -112 -0.67%
GBPJPY 145.48 146.43 -95 -0.65%

Last Updated: Jan 22, 13:40 GMT

Currency Heat Map Daily View

USD EUR JPY GBP CHF CAD AUD
USD
EUR
JPY
GBP

Last Updated: Jan 22, 13:40 GMT

Economic Indicators Update
GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
00:30 AUD Import Price Index Q/Q Q4 -4.30% -1.80% -3.00%
04:30 JPY All Industry Activity Index M/M Nov 0.10% 0.10% 1.20% 1.10%
09:30 GBP Retail Sales M/M Dec 0.30% 1.10% -0.30%
09:30 GBP Retail Sales Y/Y Dec 2.10% 3.00% 3.10% 2.70%
10:00 EUR Eurozone Industrial New Orders M/M Nov 1.60% 0.50% -2.20% -1.90%
10:00 EUR Eurozone Industrial New Orders Y/Y Nov -1.50% -7.10% -14.50% -14.40%
13:30 CAD Retail Sales M/M Nov -0.30% -0.30% 0.80%
13:30 CAD Retail Sales Less Autos M/M Nov 0.00% 0.20% 0.20%
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Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights

 

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