Thursday, January 21, 2010

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 1-21-10

ActionForex.com
Action Insight Mid-Day Report

Sterling Tumbles on M4 and Fiscal Concern

Sterling dropped sharply in European session today after data showed that M4 broad money supply had its sharpest monthly fall on record. M4 fell by -1.1% in December and rose 6.4% yoy, much worse than expectation of 0.9%mom and 8.9% yoy rise. The undesirably low money growth showed the lack of response in the market in spite of BoE's GBP 200b quantitative easing program. In addition, data also showed a net GBP 15.7b of public sector net borrowing in December, which is the higher on record in that month since 1993.

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Elliott Wave Analysis

Trade Idea: AUD/USD - Buy At 0.9030

As the Australian dollar retreated after intra-day rebound to 0.9147, suggesting the c leg of the wave iv decline from 0.9330 is still in progress and weakness to 0.9030/35 (50% Fibonacci retracement of 0.8735 to 0.9330) cannot be ruled out, however, loss of near term downward momentum should limit downside and reckon 0.8961 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement ) would hold and bring rebound later. Above said resistance at 0.9147 would suggest low has possibly been formed but only break of 0.9175 (previous support turned resistance) would confirm low has been formed, then headway to 0.9230/40 would follow.

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Trade Idea: EUR/JPY - Stand Aside

Although the single currency recovered after falling to 128.40 yesterday, as price has retreated again after meeting renewed selling at 129.31 today, suggesting the decline from 134.37 may extend marginal weakness towards 128.00, however, as broad outlook remains consolidative, reckon support at 127.32 should remain intact, bring another rally later.

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Featured Technical Report Market Highlights

GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6232; (P) 1.6301; (R1) 1.6359; More

GBP/USD's decisive break of 1.6209 support affirms that case that corrective rise from 1.5829 has completed with three waves up to 1.6456 already. Intraday bias is flipped back to the downside and further decline should be seen to retest 1.5829 support first. Break there will confirm that whole fall from 1.6875 is resuming for 1.5706 key cluster support. on the upside, above 1.6311 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral and mixes up the short term outlook.

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Daily Top Movers

Top 5 Current Last Change
(Pips)
Change
(%)
GBPUSD 1.6173 1.6290 -117 -0.72%
GBPAUD 1.7774 1.7896 -122 -0.69%
USDJPY 91.77 91.24 +53 +0.58%
AUDJPY 83.49 83.01 +48 +0.57%
GBPCAD 1.6949 1.7043 -94 -0.55%

Last Updated: Jan 21, 13:00 GMT

Currency Heat Map Daily View

USD EUR JPY GBP CHF CAD AUD
USD
EUR
JPY
GBP

Last Updated: Jan 21, 13:00 GMT

Economic Indicators Update
GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
21:45 NZD Retail Sales M/M Nov 0.80% 0.60% 0.00% 0.10%
21:45 NZD Retail Sales Ex-Auto M/M Nov 0.80% 0.30% 0.50% -0.10%
8:30 EUR German PMI Manufacturing Jan A 52.9 52.7
8:30 EUR German PMI Services Jan A 53 52.7
9:00 EUR Eurozone PMI Services Jan A 53.8 53.6
9:00 EUR Eurozone PMI Manufacturing Jan A 51.9 51.6
9:00 EUR ECB Monthly Bulletin -- --
9:30 GBP Public Sector Net Borrowing (GBP) Dec 19.0B 20.3B
9:30 GBP M4 Money Supply M/M Dec P 0.90% 0.10%
9:30 GBP M4 Money Supply Y/Y Dec P 8.90% 9.30%
10:00 CHF ZEW Expectations Jan -- 54
11:00 GBP U.K. CBI Quarterly Industrial Trends Jan -39 -42
13:30 CAD Wholesale Sales M/M Nov 0.40% 0.30%
13:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims 440K 444K
15:00 USD Philadelphia Fed Survey Jan 18 20.4
15:00 USD Leading Indicators Dec 0.70% 0.90%
15:30 USD Natural Gas Storage -214B -266B
16:00 USD Crude Oil Inventories 2.2M 3.7M
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