Tuesday, January 19, 2010

Action Insight Daily Report 1-20-10

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Action Insight Daily Report

Dollar Strengthens on Risk Aversion and Euro Concern

Risk aversion drives market in Asian today on news that China has told banks to limit lending to restrict overall credit growth. Weaker than expected CPI report from New Zealand also put some pressure on both Aussie and Kiwi. Meanwhile, Euro remains the weakest currency this week and dives through 1.4217 support against dollar and is now pressing 0.8700 level against Sterling. EUR/USD's break of 1.4217 serves as an early alert that dollar is staging a broad based rebound and we'd expect Euro's weakness to be spread over to broad based dollar rally in near term if dollar index breaks 78.19 resistance.

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Candlesticks & Ichimoku Analysis

Trade Idea: GBP/USD - Buy At 1.6215, O.C.O. Sell At 1.6400

Cable slipped to an intra-day low of 1.6281 in tandem with he selloff in euro, suggesting recent upmove has formed a top at 1.6459 and consolidation with mild downside bias is seen for retracement of recent upmove to 1.6267 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement of 1.5957 to 1.6459), however, 1.6208-11 (50% Fibonacci retracement and previous support) should attract renewed buying interest, bring rebound later but price should falter well below resistance at 1.6459 and bring another leg of corrective decline.

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Trade Idea: EUR/USD - Sell At 1.4300

The single currency extended recent decline after breaking indicated support at 1.4257 and the breach of 1.4218 support confirms the major decline from 1.5145 (2009 high) has resumed and stronger retracement of early upmove is in progress for further fall to (price already met indicated first downside target at 1.4170 - 100% projection of 1.4580 to 1.4335 measuring from 1.4415) 1.4118 (50% projection of 1.5142 to 1.4218 measuring from 1.4580) but reckon 1.4040/50 would hold from here and bring rebound later this week.

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Featured Technical Report Market Highlights

EUR/USD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.4222; (P) 1.4318; (R1) 1.4384; More

EUR/USD dives further to as low as 1.4171 today and the break of 1.4217 support confirms that whole decline from 1.5143 has resumed. Intraday bias remains on the downside and further fall should now be seen to 38.2% retracement of 1.2329 to 1.5143 at 1.4068 next. On the upside, above 1.4304 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations. But recovery is expected to be limited below 1.4578 resistance and bring fall resumption.

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Daily Top Movers

Top 5 Current Last Change
(Pips)
Change
(%)
NZDJPY 66.37 67.00 -63 -0.95%
NZDUSD 0.7283 0.7352 -69 -0.95%
AUDJPY 83.49 84.12 -63 -0.75%
AUDUSD 0.9162 0.9231 -69 -0.75%
EURJPY 129.40 130.22 -82 -0.63%

Last Updated: Jan 20, 07:10 GMT

Currency Heat Map Daily View

USD EUR JPY GBP CHF CAD AUD
USD
EUR
JPY
GBP

Last Updated: Jan 20, 07:10 GMT

Economic Indicators Update
GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
21:45 NZD CPI Q/Q Q4 -0.20% 0.00% 1.30%
21:45 NZD CPI Y/Y Q4 2.00% 2.10% 1.70%
23:30 AUD Westpac Consumer Confidence Jan 5.60% -- -3.80%
23:50 JPY Tertiary Industry Index M/M Nov -0.20% -0.20% 0.50% 0.40%
7:00 EUR German PPI M/M Dec 0.20% 0.10%
7:00 EUR German PPI Y/Y Dec -5.10% -5.90%
9:30 GBP BoE Policy Meeting Minutes 0--0--9 0--0--9
9:30 GBP Claimant Count Change Dec -4.6K -6.3K
9:30 GBP Claimant Count Rate Dec 5.00% 5.00%
9:30 GBP ILO Unemployment Rate (3M) Nov 8.00% 7.90%
12:00 CAD CPI M/M Dec 0.20% 0.50%
12:00 CAD CPI Y/Y Dec 1.80% 1.00%
12:00 CAD BoC CPI Core M/M Dec 0.10% 0.40%
12:00 CAD BoC CPI Core Y/Y Dec 1.90% 1.50%
13:30 CAD Manufacturing Shipments M/M Nov 1.40% 2.00%
13:30 USD PPI M/M Dec 0.00% 1.80%
13:30 USD PPI Y/Y Dec 4.60% 2.40%
13:30 USD PPI Core M/M Dec 0.10% 0.50%
13:30 USD PPI Core Y/Y Dec 1.00% 1.20%
13:30 USD Housing Starts Dec 574K 574K
13:30 USD Building Permits Dec 580K 584K
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