Monday, January 4, 2010

Action Insight Daily Report 1-4-10

ActionForex.com
Action Insight Daily Report

Commodity Currencies Strengthen in Manufacturing Day

Commodity currencies take the lead in the first trading day of 2010 and rally broadly, with the help of firmness in crude oil and gold. Dollar is a touch softer in early European session but remains in range against European majors. Japanese yen tried to stage recovery earlier today on weakness in Asian stocks but fades as the day goes. Manufacturing data will be the main focus today with finalized PMI manufacturing data from Eurozone, UK PMI manufacturing and US ISM manufacturing featured.

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Candlesticks & Ichimoku Analysis

Trade Idea: USD/CHF - Buy At 1.0285

Although dollar rebounded after trading above last week's low at 1.0279 and consolidation with mild upside bias is seen for test of resistance at 1.0422 (also just above the Ichimoku cloud top at 1.0415), it is necessary to see a breach of recent high at 1.0509 to confirm the upmove from 2009 low of 0.9910 has resumed, then bring further headway towards next resistance at 1.0592 (previous support turned resistance), otherwise, further choppy consolidation would take place.

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Trade Idea: GBP/USD - Buy At 1.5975

Although the British pound retreated in tandem with euro, last week's strong rebound from 1.5832 to 1.6236 signals a temporary low has been formed at 1.5832 and whilst further weakness to the Kijun-Sen (now at 1.6035) is likely, reckon the Ichimoku cloud bottom (now at 1.5973) would limit downside and bring another leg of corrective rise later. Above the Ichimoku cloud top (now at 1.6167 would suggest this move is under way and retest of 1.6236 resistance would follow. Looking ahead, breach of this resistance would extend near term rise from 1.5832 towards 1.6277 (50% Fibonacci retracement of 1.6722-1.5832).

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Trade Idea: EUR/USD - Sell At 1.4400

Although the single currency slipped again after faltering below resistance at 1.4459 (last week's high) and retest of recent low at 1.4218 cannot be ruled out, it is necessary to see a breach of this support to confirm recent decline from 1.5145 top has resumed and extend weakness to 1.4140/50, however, loss of downward momentum should prevent sharp fall below there and reckon 1.4115 (50% projection of 1.4906 to 1.4218 measuring from 1.4459) would hold.

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Trade Idea: USD/JPY - Buy At 92.05

As the greenback has maintained a firm undertone after resuming recent upmove, suggesting the rise from 84.82 low is still in progress and would extend gain to 93.32 (100% projection of 84.82 to 90.78 measuring from 87.36) but loss of upward momentum would cap price below 94.00 and reckon 94.50/55 would hold from here, risk a retreat later.

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Featured Technical Report Market Highlights

USD/CAD Weekly Outlook

USD/CAD's rebound from 1.0364 lost moment after hitting 1.0576 and weakens again. Intraday bias remains neutral for the moment. As noted before, with 1.0744 resistance intact, there is no confirmation there recent choppy consolidation from 1.0851 has completed yet. Another fall could still be seen and a break below 1.0364 will target 1.0205 support. Nevertheless, we'd still expect downside to be contained above 1.0205 to conclude the consolidations and bring rise resumption. On the upside, above 1.0576 will suggest that rise from 1.0364 is resuming and flip intraday bias back to the upside for 1.0744 resistance. Break there will suggest that whole rise from 1.0205 has resumed for another high above 1.0851.

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Daily Top Movers

Top 5 Current Last Change
(Pips)
Change
(%)
GBPCAD 1.6842 1.7020 -178 -1.06%
EURCAD 1.4935 1.5080 -145 -0.97%
USDCAD 1.0441 1.0529 -88 -0.84%
CADJPY 89.01 88.27 +74 +0.83%
GBPAUD 1.7888 1.8030 -142 -0.79%

Last Updated: Jan 04, 08:50 GMT

Currency Heat Map Daily View

USD EUR JPY GBP CHF CAD AUD
USD
EUR
JPY
GBP

Last Updated: Jan 04, 08:50 GMT

Economic Indicators Update
GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
8:30 CHF SVME-PMI Dec 54.6 56.9 56.9
8:55 EUR German PMI Manufacturing Dec F 53.1 53.1
9:00 EUR Eurozone PMI Manufacturing Dec F 51.6 51.2
9:30 EUR Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence Dec -- -5.5
9:30 GBP PMI Manufacturing Dec 52 51.8
9:30 GBP Mortgage Approvals Nov 58.0K 57.3K
15:00 USD ISM Manufacturing Dec 54 53.6
15:00 USD ISM Prices Paid Dec 60 55
15:00 USD Construction Spending M/M Nov -0.50% 0.00%
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