Monday, January 25, 2010

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 1-25-10

ActionForex.com
Action Insight Mid-Day Report

Dollar and Yen Continue to Consolidate as Markets Stabilized

Dollar and yen continue to consolidate against major currencies as equities stabilize above last week's low. US stocks open mildly higher but so far the strength for rebound is weak. We'd like to point out that the retreat in dollar and yen today is so far very weak and the price actions remain corrective in nature. In other words, markets are merely consolidating recent gains in both currencies and further rise is still in favor after the current consolidations. Indeed, USD/CAD takes the lead today as crude oil fails to stage a meaningful rebound and and is still soft at around 74.5 level.

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Special Report

FOMC Preview: Current Conditions Warrant Low Interest Rates

The Fed is expected to keep the policy rate unchanged at 0-0.25% at the January meeting. While there have signs showing improvement in economic outlook, job markets remained the area the Fed concerned the most. The number of payrolls unexpectedly plunged -85K in December, compared with consensus of no change from November, while the unemployment rate stayed at 10%. The Fed will wait until unemployment rate has dropped substantially before considering rate hikes.

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Elliott Wave Analysis

Trade Idea: EUR/JPY - Sell At 129.50

As the single currency has remained sidelined after early selloff to 126.55, suggesting minor consolidation would take place before decline resumes for one more fall towards 126.00 but reckon 125.00 would hold. Our latest preferred count is that the 3rd set of a-b-c of larger degree wave 2 is still in progress and only b leg ended at 134.37 (with a - 134.54, b - 127.32 and c - 134.37), hence c leg is now underway with minor wave i ended at 131.52, ii at 133.65 and wave iii has possibly ended at 126.55, so the rebound from there is wave iv and may bring correction towards 129.50 before prospect of another selloff later.

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Trade Idea: AUD/USD - Buy At 0.8930

Failure to extend early rebound from 0.8983 suggests as long as 0.9093 (Friday's high) holds, downside risk remains for the decline from 0.9331 to extend one more fall and break of said support would bring stronger retracement of the rise from 0.8735 to 0.8963 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement) but reckon 0.8900 would hold, bring another rebound later.

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Featured Technical Report Market Highlights

USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0373; (P) 1.0409; (R1) 1.0444; More

USD/CHF's retreat from 1.0494 is still in progress and another fall to 4 hours 55 EMA (now at 1.0343) cannot be ruled out. But after all, downside is expected to be contained above 1.0291 resistance turned support and bring rally resumption. As noted before, current development indicates that whole rise from 0.9919 should be resuming. Break of 1.0506 will target 1.0590 medium term support turned resistance next.

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Daily Top Movers

Top 5 Current Last Change
(Pips)
Change
(%)
NZDJPY 64.39 63.70 +69 +1.07%
AUDJPY 81.64 80.86 +78 +0.96%
GBPJPY 145.89 144.69 +120 +0.82%
NZDUSD 0.7142 0.7092 +50 +0.70%
AUDCAD 0.9588 0.9521 +67 +0.70%

Last Updated: Jan 25, 14:50 GMT

Currency Heat Map Daily View

USD EUR JPY GBP CHF CAD AUD
USD
EUR
JPY
GBP

Last Updated: Jan 25, 14:50 GMT

Economic Indicators Update
GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
0:30 AUD PPI Q/Q Q4 -0.40% 0.10% 0.10%
7:00 EUR German GfK Consumer Sentiment Feb 3.2 3.1 3.3 3.4
15:00 USD Existing Home Sales Dec 5.45M 6.00M 6.54M
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