| Action Insight Daily Report |
Euro Weakens on Greece Concern. Dollar Firm ahead of GDP Euro weakens further against dollar and yen today as concern on Greece intensified. Germany and France denied a report of an imminent EU bailout of Greece and sent Greece GDS up to 414 record 414 level which was the same as Dubai's CDS when it got a $10b bailout in December. The yield on 10-year Greek bonds rose to 7.15 percent yesterday, the highest level since October 1999 and up from 4.99 percent on Nov. 30. Euro is also additionally pressured as Portugal reported higher than expected budget deficit of 9.3% of GDP is 2009, even though it's still better than Greece's budget deficit of 13% of GDP. Sterling is also soft after S&P said they "no longer classify the United Kingdom (AAA/Negative/A-1+) among the most stable and low-risk banking systems globally," Asian stocks are also broadly down, following weakness in US equities, and saw Nikkei down more than -2% to 10198 level. Yen maintains overnight strength in Asian today while commodity currencies are soft. Dollar continues to remain firm in general after Bernanke was confirmed for a second term as Fed Chairman by the Senate on 70-30 vote. Full Report Here... |
| Special Reports |
2010 Currency Outlook: JPY Narrowing of US-Japan yield gap and the 'laissez-faire' stance of the Japanese government were the main reasons accelerating Japanese yen's rally against the dollar in 2H09. 3-month LIBOR for USD-denominated loans has been trading been below that of yen-denominated loans since August 24 while USDJPY plummeted to as low as 84.82, a level never seen after 1995, in November. Not until a stronger-than-expected November employment report in the US which spurred speculations of an earlier (by June) Fed rate hike had the dollar rebounded against the yen. However, the yen remains strong compared with historical average. Full Report Here... |
| Candlesticks & Ichimoku Analysis |
Trade Idea: EUR/USD - Sell At 1.4160, O.C.O. Buy At 1.3900 Although the single currency has fallen after brief recovery from 1.3930 yesterday and weakness towards 1.3900 cannot be ruled out, loss of downward momentum would prevent sharp fall below there and reckon 1.3854 (61.8% projection of 1.4580 to 1.4029 measuring from 1.4195) would limit downside and bring a correction later today. Full Report Here... Trade Idea: USD/JPY - Stand Aside Although the greenback retreated after rebounding to 90.56 yesterday, only break of support at 89.14 would signal the decline from 93.78 has resumed and extend weakness towards 88.83, however, reckon support at 88.32 would hold and yield another strong rebound later due to loss of downward momentum. However, break of said resistance is needed to suggest low has possibly been formed, bring test of the Ichimoku cloud bottom at 90.66, but only above 90.91-92 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement of 93.78 to 89.14 and the current level of the Ichimoku cloud top) would confirm, then subsequent gain towards 91.88 would follow next week. Full Report Here... |
| Featured Technical Report | Market Highlights |
EUR/JPY Daily Outlook Daily Pivots: (S1) 124.77; (P) 125.92; (R1) 126.76; More. EUR/JPY fall resume by breaking 125.22 and reaches as low as 124.80 so far. At this point, intraday bias remains on the downside and further fall is still expected to be seen to 124.35 medium term support and then 100% projection of 138.47 to 126.88 from 134.36 at 122.77 next. However, considering mild bullish convergence condition in 4 hours MACD, a break above 127.08 minor resistance will indicate that a short term bottom is formed and bring stronger recovery before staging another fall. Read more... All Technical Outlook Reports | Daily Top Movers | Top 5 | Current | Last | Change
(Pips) | Change
(%) | | GBPAUD | 1.8097 | 1.8034 | +63 | +0.35% | | AUDUSD | 0.8917 | 0.8945 | -28 | -0.31% | | AUDNZD | 1.2648 | 1.2678 | -30 | -0.24% | | AUDCAD | 0.9515 | 0.9537 | -22 | -0.23% | | AUDJPY | 80.24 | 80.42 | -18 | -0.22% | Last Updated: Jan 29, 07:00 GMT Currency Heat Map Daily View | USD | EUR | JPY | GBP | CHF | CAD | AUD | | USD | | | | | | | | | EUR | | | | | | | | | JPY | | | | | | | | | GBP | | | | | | | | Last Updated: Jan 29, 07:00 GMT |
| Economic Indicators Update |
| GMT | Ccy | Events | Actual | Consensus | Previous | Revised | | 21:45 | NZD | Trade Balance (NZD) Dec | 2M | -115M | -269M | -276M | | 23:15 | JPY | Nomura/JMMA Manufacturing PMI Jan | 52.5 | -- | 53.8 | | | 23:30 | JPY | Unemployment Rate Dec | 5.10% | 5.30% | 5.20% | | | 23:30 | JPY | Household Spending Y/Y Dec | 2.10% | 1.60% | 2.20% | | | 23:30 | JPY | National CPI Y/Y Dec | -1.70% | -1.70% | -1.90% | | | 23:30 | JPY | National CPI Core Y/Y Dec | -1.30% | -1.30% | -1.70% | | | 23:30 | JPY | Tokyo CPI Core Y/Y Jan | -2.00% | -1.80% | -1.90% | | | 23:50 | JPY | Industrial Production M/M Dec P | 2.20% | 2.50% | 2.60% | 2.20% | | 23:50 | JPY | Industrial Production Y/Y Dec P | 5.30% | 5.70% | -4.20% | | | 23:50 | JPY | BoJ Minutes | | | | | | 0:01 | GBP | GfK Consumer Confidence Survey Jan | -17 | -18 | -19 | | | 5:00 | JPY | Housing Starts Y/Y Dec | -15.70% | -18.80% | -19.10% | | | 9:00 | EUR | Eurozone M3 Y/Y Dec | | -0.50% | -0.20% | | | 10:00 | EUR | Eurozone CPI Estimate Y/Y Jan | | 1.20% | 0.90% | | | 10:00 | EUR | Eurozone Unemployment Rate Dec | | 10.10% | 10.00% | | | 10:30 | CHF | KOF Leading Indicator Jan | | 1.71 | 1.68 | | | 13:30 | CAD | IPPI M/M Dec | | 0.50% | 1.00% | | | 13:30 | CAD | RMPI M/M Dec | | 1.40% | 2.20% | | | 13:30 | CAD | GDP M/M Nov | | 0.30% | 0.20% | | | 13:30 | USD | GDP (Annualized) Q4 A | | 4.50% | 2.20% | | | 13:30 | USD | GDP Price Index Q4 A | | 1.30% | 0.40% | | | 13:30 | USD | Employment Cost Index Q4 | | 0.40% | 0.40% | | | 14:45 | USD | Chicago PMI Jan | | 57 | 58.7 | | | 14:55 | USD | U. of Michigan Confidence Jan F | | 73 | 72.8 | | |
| Suggested Readings |
Fundamental Highlights Technical Highlights |
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