Wednesday, January 6, 2010

Action Insight Daily Report 1-7-10

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Action Insight Daily Report

AUD & CAD Continue to Shine, Dollar Soft after Dovish FOMC Minutes

Australian dollar and Canadian dollar continue to shine this week, boosted by strength in crude oil and gold. Australian dollar is also additionally supported by better than expected retail sales data released overnight. Dollar remains generally soft as dovish FOMC minutes suggest that there is still potential for additional quantitative easing. Sterling also remains vulnerable ahead of BoE meeting later today. While Euro manages to recover against dollar, it's still limited below near term resistance of 1.4483. Greece Finance Minister came out yesterday saying that there is no need for national bailout but Euro is noticeably against Swissy after the comment as EUR/CHF dived to 1.4765.

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Special Reports

FOMC Minutes – December: Cautious Policymakers Did Not Rule Out Further Asset Purchases

Although the Fed upgraded forecasts of 4Q09 and 2010 growth outlook, the minutes revealed that policymakers remained concerned about the vulnerability of recovery and the impacts may be caused by removal of stimulus.

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BOE Meeting Preview: Continuing with the Status Quo

Thursday's BOE will be a non-event as MPC members will likely discuss about change in monetary policy in February, the month when the quarterly Inflation Report is published. In short, policymakers should keep the policy rate at 0.5% and the size of the asset purchase program at 200B pounds.

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Candlesticks & Ichimoku Analysis

Trade Idea: USD/CHF - Sell At 1.0420

Although the greenback broke below support at 1.0253 this morning, lack of follow through selling suggests further sideways consolidation would take place and the horizontal moving Tenkan-Sen and Kijun-Sen also add credence to this view, however, reckon upside would be limited to Ichimoku cloud top (now at 1.0391) and renewed selling should emerge below resistance at 1.0422, bring another retreat later. Below said support would bring stronger retracement of recent upmove to 1.0210 (approx. 50% Fibonacci retracement of 0.9910 to 1.0509), however, reckon support at 1.0176 (previous resistance turned support) would hold from here.

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Trade Idea: USD/JPY - Hold Short Entered At 92.65

Despite yesterday's rebound to 92.75 partly due to cross-selling in yen, the retreat from there suggests further consolidation below recent high at 93.22 would take place and price is testing the Ichimoku cloud top right now, once a sustain breach of this level is materialized (a 4-hour closing below) would add credence to this view and bring another corrective decline to 91.25. Looking ahead, below this support would bring retracement of recent upmove towards 90.78 (previous resistance), however, reckon support at 90.78 (previous resistance turned support) would limit downside and 90.29 (50% Fibonacci retracement of 87.36 to 93.22) should hold.

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Featured Technical Report Market Highlights

EUR/CHF Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.4780; (P) 1.4818; (R1) 1.4845; More

EUR/CHF's down trend resumes after brief consolidations and reaches as low as 1.4765 so far. As discussed before, current decline is expected to continue to 100% projection of 1.5138 to 1.4894 from 1.4988 at 1.4744 next. Break there will bring deeper fall towards next key support level at 1.4577. On the upside, above 1.4874 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral again and bring consolidations. But again, break of 1.4988 resistance is needed to confirm that EUR/CHF has bottomed out. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

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Daily Top Movers

Top 5 Current Last Change
(Pips)
Change
(%)
USDJPY 92.74 92.31 +43 +0.46%
AUDJPY 85.24 84.89 +35 +0.41%
GBPUSD 1.5968 1.6018 -50 -0.31%
USDCHF 1.0306 1.0275 +31 +0.30%
EURUSD 1.4366 1.4409 -43 -0.30%

Last Updated: Jan 07, 07:20 GMT

Currency Heat Map Daily View

USD EUR JPY GBP CHF CAD AUD
USD
EUR
JPY
GBP

Last Updated: Jan 07, 07:20 GMT

Economic Indicators Update
GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
21:45 NZD Trade Balance (NZD) Nov -269M -397M -487M -495M
0:30 AUD Retail Sales M/M Nov 1.40% 0.40% 0.30% 0.40%
1:30 AUD Trade Balance (AUD) Nov -1.70B -1.79B -2.38B -2.08B
8:15 CHF CPI M/M Dec 0.00% 0.20%
8:15 CHF CPI Y/Y Dec 0.50% 0.00%
10:00 EUR Eurozone Retail Sales M/M Nov 0.10% 0.00%
10:00 EUR Eurozone Retail Sales Y/Y Nov -1.80% -1.90%
10:00 EUR Eurozone Consumer Confidence Dec -16 -17
10:00 EUR Eurozone Economic Confidence Dec 89.9 88.8
10:00 EUR Eurozone Industrial Confidence Dec -17 -19
10:00 EUR Eurozone Services Confidence Dec -3 -4
11:00 EUR German Factory Orders M/M Nov 1.50% -2.10%
11:00 EUR German Factory Orders Y/Y Nov -0.30% -8.50%
12:00 GBP BoE Interest Rate Decision 0.50% 0.50%
12:00 GBP BoE Asset Purchase Target 200B 200B
13:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims 449K 432K
15:00 CAD Ivey PMI Dec 51.5 55.9
15:30 USD Natural Gas Storage -147B -124B
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