Tuesday, January 12, 2010

Action Insight Daily Report 1-12-10

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Action Insight Daily Report

Dollar Recovers as China Hikes Yield again

Dollar recovers across the board as China raised bill yields second time in a week to tightening liquidity further. Crude oil retreats yesterday's gain and is back at 82 level while gold is also back pressing 1150. PBoC sold benchmark 1-year bill at 1.8434$ today. Last week, PBoC raised yield on three-month bills to 1.3684%. The steps are viewed as sign that PBoC is getting more aggressive in draining cash from the money market and prompts speculations there will more measures to come, including increasing banks' reserve ratios.

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Candlesticks & Ichimoku Analysis

Trade Idea: USD/CHF - Sell At 1.0255

As the greenback fell marginally to 1.0130 yesterday, lack of follow through selling suggests further consolidation would take place and although recovery to the Kijun-Sen (now at 1.0258) cannot be ruled out, renewed selling interest should emerge there and bring another decline. Below said support would bring stronger retracement of recent rise from 0.9910 to 1.0100, however, reckon 1.0050 would limit downside due to oversold condition.

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Trade Idea: GBP/USD - Sell At 1.6230, O.C.O. Buy At 1.5915

As the British pound retreated after rising to 1.6194 yesterday, reinforcing our view for further choppy consolidation within recent 1.5832-1.6242 range and although intra-day rebound from 1.6063 suggests marginal gain above said resistance cannot be ruled out, reckon indicated upper level would limit upside and bring retreat later, below 1.6037-43 (current Ichimoku cloud area) would bring weakness to 1.6000, however, support at 1.5896 should attract renewed buying interest and bring another bounce later.

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Trade Idea: EUR/USD - Buy At 1.4415

Although the single currency rose to as high as 1.4557 yesterday, as price has retreated from there, suggesting minor consolidation would take place and pullback to the Kijun-Sen (now at 1.4410) cannot be ruled out, however, renewed buying interest should emerge there and bring another rally later. Above said resistance would signal a stronger retracement of recent decline is underway to 1.4600 and possibly towards 1.4680 (approx. 50% Fibonacci retracement of recent decline from 1.5142/45), however, reckon 1.4696 (1.618 times projection of 1.4218 to 1.4485 measuring from 1.4264) would limit hold from here.

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Trade Idea: USD/JPY - Buy At 91.30

The greenback did slip to 91.81 yesterday as suggested in our previous update and near term downside risk remains for retracement of recent upmove towards support at 91.25, however, reckon support at 90.78 (previous resistance) would hold and bring another rebound later. Above the Kijun-Sen (now at 92.79) would signal the pullback from 93.78 top has possibly ended and bring further gain to 93.20/25, break there would confirm the rise from 84.82 low has resumed for retest of said resistance level later.

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Featured Technical Report Market Highlights

USD/CAD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0275; (P) 1.0309; (R1) 1.0367; More.

USD/CAD recovers again after hitting 1.0251 as the pair continues to lose downside momentum, as seen in bullish convergence condition in 4 hours MACD. Another fall cannot be ruled out as long as 1.0382 minor resistance holds. But after all, we'd expect USD/CAD to further lose momentum on next fall and whole correction pattern from 1.0851 should conclude above 1.0205 support and bring reversal. Above 1.0382 minor resistance will flip intraday bias back to the upside. Further break of 1.0576 resistance will suggest that rise from 1.0205 is resuming for another high above 1.0851 resistance.

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Daily Top Movers

Top 5 Current Last Change
(Pips)
Change
(%)
GBPCAD 1.6616 1.6651 -35 -0.21%
AUDNZD 1.2508 1.2528 -20 -0.16%
AUDCAD 0.9590 0.9605 -15 -0.16%
EURCAD 1.4968 1.4991 -23 -0.15%
GBPUSD 1.6089 1.6113 -24 -0.15%

Last Updated: Jan 12, 07:30 GMT

Currency Heat Map Daily View

USD EUR JPY GBP CHF CAD AUD
USD
EUR
JPY
GBP

Last Updated: Jan 12, 07:30 GMT

Economic Indicators Update
GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
23:50 JPY Current Account (JPY) Nov 1.30T 1.22T 1.38T
0:01 GBP RICS House Price Balance Dec 30.00% 38.00% 35.00%
5:00 JPY Eco Watchers Survey: Current Dec 35.4 34.2 33.9
9:30 GBP Visible Trade Balance (GBP) Nov -7.000B -7.108B
9:30 GBP DCLG UK House Prices Y/Y Nov 0.10% -2.20%
13:30 CAD New Housing Price Index M/M Nov 0.30% 0.30%
13:30 CAD Trade Balance (CAD) Nov 0.7B 0.4B
13:30 USD Trade Balance Nov -$34.8B -$32.9B
Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights

 

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