Thursday, January 28, 2010

Action Insight Daily Report 1-28-10

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Action Insight Daily Report

Yen Lower as Obama Boosted Risk Appetite, Dollar Mixed

Yen is broadly lower in Asian today as stocks are lifted by US President Obama's first State of the Union address. Obama pledged to put job creation as the "number one" focus in 2010 and called for a new job bill. Obama also called for an extension of tax incentives of USD 38b over this yearand proposed to use $30b of money paid back from TARP to assist community banks that give loans to small businesses. Nikkei rebounded by jumping 1.68% to close at 10424. Aussie and Kiwi are the better performers on risk appetite.

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Special Reports

RBNZ Review - January: Less Uncertainty, Higher Possibility To Hike Rate By 2Q10

As expected, the RBNZ left the OCR unchanged at 2.5%. The accompanying statement was a short one as much uncertainty about recovery was removed. Also, the central bank reiterated December' stance that removal of policy stimulus will start around the middle of 2010 if the economy continues to recover.

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FOMC Review – January: Slightly More Hawkish Than Anticipated

The January FOMC statement showed slightly more hashish tone on economic growth though the overall stance remained unchanged – the Fed funds rate will be kept at 0-0.25% and 'economic conditions, including low rates of resource utilization, subdued inflation trends, and stable inflation expectations, are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate for an extended period'. Kansa City Fed President Thomas Hoenig's dissent to keep the 'extended period' phrase was also surprising and signaled there might more hawks appearing later this year.

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2010 Currency Outlook: JPY

Narrowing of US-Japan yield gap and the 'laissez-faire' stance of the Japanese government were the main reasons accelerating Japanese yen's rally against the dollar in 2H09. 3-month LIBOR for USD-denominated loans has been trading been below that of yen-denominated loans since August 24 while USDJPY plummeted to as low as 84.82, a level never seen after 1995, in November. Not until a stronger-than-expected November employment report in the US which spurred speculations of an earlier (by June) Fed rate hike had the dollar rebounded against the yen. However, the yen remains strong compared with historical average.

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Candlesticks & Ichimoku Analysis

Trade Idea: EUR/USD - Sell At 1.4160, O.C.O. Buy At 1.3900

Although the single currency rebounded after falling to 1.3930 this morning, a sustain breach of the Kijun-Sen (now at 1.4067) is needed to signal a temporary low is in place and bring correction to the Ichimoku cloud bottom (now at 1.4154), otherwise, downside risk remains for recent decline to extend one more fall to 1.3920 (50% projection of 1.4580 to 1.4029 measuring from 1.4195) but reckon 1.3854 (61.8% projection) would hold, bring rebound later.

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Trade Idea: USD/JPY - Sell At 91.10, O.C.O. Buy At 89.45

Despite falling to 89.14 yesterday, the rebound from there and the break of the Tenkan-Sen and Kijun-Sen signal a temporary low has been formed there and consolidation with mild upside bias is seen for correction to 90.84-91 (current level of the Ichimoku cloud bottom and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of 93.78 to 89.14) but the Ichimoku cloud top (now at 91.11) should attract renewed selling interest and bring another decline later.

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Featured Technical Report Market Highlights

USD/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 89.39; (P) 89.74; (R1) 90.34; More.

USD/JPY's strong rebound from 89.13 and break of 89.76 minor resistance indicates that an intraday low is in place and turns bias neutral. Some consolidations could be seen but we'd expect 90.55 resistance holds and bring fall resumption. Below 89.13 will target 87.36 support next and break there will confirm that whole rise from 84.10 has completed with waves up to 93.74 already. Also, it will indicate that medium term down trend is resuming for another low below 84.81. However, sustained trading above 90.55 resistance will dampen this bearish view and turn focus back to 91.86/92.03 resistance zone instead.

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Daily Top Movers

Top 5 Current Last Change
(Pips)
Change
(%)
AUDJPY 81.29 80.56 +73 +0.90%
NZDJPY 63.97 63.55 +42 +0.66%
EURAUD 1.5559 1.5659 -100 -0.64%
AUDUSD 0.9008 0.8952 +56 +0.62%
CADJPY 85.05 84.55 +50 +0.59%

Last Updated: Jan 28, 07:05 GMT

Currency Heat Map Daily View

USD EUR JPY GBP CHF CAD AUD
USD
EUR
JPY
GBP

Last Updated: Jan 28, 07:05 GMT

Economic Indicators Update
GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
20:00 NZD RBNZ Interest Rate Decision 2.50% 2.50% 2.50%
23:50 JPY Retail Trade Y/Y Dec -0.30% 0.30% -1.00% -1.10%
8:55 EUR German Unemployment Change Jan 15K -3K
8:55 EUR German Unemployment Rate Jan 8.20% 8.10%
10:00 EUR Eurozone Economic Confidence Jan 92.3 91.3
10:00 EUR Eurozone Consumer Confidence Jan -15 -16
10:00 EUR Eurozone Industrial Confidence Jan -15 -16
10:00 EUR Eurozone Services Confidence Jan -3 -3
13:30 USD Durable Goods Orders Dec 2.00% 0.20%
13:30 USD Durables Ex-Transport Dec 0.30% 2.00%
13:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims 452K 482K
15:30 USD Natural Gas Storage -102B -245B
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