Tuesday, January 26, 2010

Action Insight Daily Report 1-27-10

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Action Insight Daily Report

Yen Extends Gain, Dollar in Range ahead of FOMC

Yen strengthens broadly in Asia today as China's Securities Times reported that regulators have ordered banks to call back some of the loans they extended in January. Investors continue to be concerned with more tightening measures from China to cool inflation. Dollar is staying in tight range while crude oil and gold continue to consolidate above recent low of 73.82 and 1081.9. Markets are cautious on event risks including FOMC announcement, and US President Obama's speech. In particular, focus will be on any comments from Obama on the bank proposal which rocked the financial markets last week.

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Special Report

FOMC Preview: Current Conditions Warrant Low Interest Rates

The Fed is expected to keep the policy rate unchanged at 0-0.25% at the January meeting. While there have signs showing improvement in economic outlook, job markets remained the area the Fed concerned the most. The number of payrolls unexpectedly plunged -85K in December, compared with consensus of no change from November, while the unemployment rate stayed at 10%. The Fed will wait until unemployment rate has dropped substantially before considering rate hikes.

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Candlesticks & Ichimoku Analysis

Trade Idea: EUR/USD - Sell At 1.4160

Euro's sharp retreat from 1.4195 signals correction from 1.4029 has ended there and bearishness remains for recent decline from 1.5145 top to resume after consolidation and extend weakness to 1.4015 (50% Fibonacci retracement of 1.2885 to 1.5145) and possibly towards 1.3950, however, loss of downward momentum should prevent sharp fall below 1.3920 (50% projection of 1.4580 to 1.4029 measuring from 1.4195) and reckon 1.3854 (61.8% projection) would hold, bring rebound later.

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Trade Idea: USD/JPY - Sell At 90.50, O.C.O. Buy At 88.40

The greenback has continued to move lower and the decline from 93.78 top is likely to extend weakness to 88.83, however, oversold condition should prevent sharp fall below there and reckon support at 88.32 (also below 100% projection of 93.78 to 90.31 measuring from 91.88 at 88.41) would attract buying interest and bring a strong rebound later.

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Featured Technical Report Market Highlights

GBP/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 143.41; (P) 145.34; (R1) 146.62; More

GBP/JPY drops further to as low as 143.62 so far today and at this point, intraday bias remains on the downside for 141.99 support next. As noted before, whole sideway consolidation from 139.69 might have completed at 150.68 already and decline from 163.05 is possibly resuming. Break of 141.99 support will further affirm this bearish case and target a retest on 139.26 next. On the upside, above 144.99 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral and bring recovery. But upside should be limited by 147.25 resistance and bring fall resumption.

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Daily Top Movers

Top 5 Current Last Change
(Pips)
Change
(%)
NZDJPY 62.95 63.45 -50 -0.79%
CADJPY 83.76 84.35 -59 -0.70%
EURJPY 125.42 126.14 -72 -0.57%
CHFJPY 85.21 85.67 -46 -0.54%
GBPJPY 143.95 144.68 -73 -0.51%

Last Updated: Jan 27, 07:10 GMT

Currency Heat Map Daily View

USD EUR JPY GBP CHF CAD AUD
USD
EUR
JPY
GBP

Last Updated: Jan 27, 07:10 GMT

Economic Indicators Update
GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
23:30 AUD Westpac Leading Index M/M Nov 1.00% -- 0.40% 0.50%
23:50 JPY Trade Balance (JPY) Dec 0.52T 0.61T 0.49T 0.52T
0:30 AUD CPI Q/Q Q4 0.50% 0.40% 1.00%
0:30 AUD CPI Y/Y Q4 2.10% 2.00% 1.30%
0:30 AUD CPI RBA Trimmed Mean Q/Q Q4 0.60% 0.60% 0.80%
0:30 AUD CPI RBA Trimmed Mean Y/Y Q4 3.20% 3.20% 3.20%
0:30 AUD CPI RBA Weighted Median Q/Q Q4 0.70% 0.60% 0.80%
0:30 AUD CPI RBA Weighted Median Y/Y Q4 3.60% 3.50% 3.80%
5:00 JPY BoJ Monthly Report -- --
11:00 GBP U.K. CBI Distributive Trades Jan 11 13
15:00 USD New Home Sales Dec 370K 355K
15:30 USD Crude Oil Inventories 1.4M -0.4M
19:15 USD FOMC Interest Rate Decision 0.25% 0.25%
20:00 NZD RBNZ Interest Rate Decision 2.50% 2.50%
-- EUR German CPI M/M Jan P -0.30% 0.80%
-- EUR German CPI Y/Y Jan P 1.00% 0.90%
-- EUR German HICP M/M Jan P -0.40% 0.90%
-- EUR German HICP Y/Y Jan P 1.00% 0.80%
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