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| Action Insight Weekly Report | Markets Snapshot |
An Eventful Week Ahead, Dollar to Dive and Reverse?Markets were basically indecisive last week as a number of event risks approach. We're talking about a whole lot of events this week including the anticipated QE2 announcement from Fed, four other major central bank meetings (RBA, ECB, BoE and BoJ), US mid-term election as well as non-farm payroll. Note that technically speaking, recent price actions of dollar were corrective in nature, which suggest that it hasn't bottomed. Indeed, the greenback has weakened much towards the end of the week, in particular against yen and gold. We'd anticipate a new low in dollar ahead as recent consolidations finish in the early part of this week. Nevertheless, from technical point of view, the greenback would possibly finally stage a noticeable rebound after the next fall. Among other major currencies, Sterling and Kiwi were strong and are both likely to gain most in the next dollar selloff. Meanwhile, Swissy and, to a lesser extent, Aussie would probably lag behind. |    |
| Featured Technical Report | |
EUR/USD Weekly OutlookEUR/USD continued to engage in choppy sideway trading last week. The price pattern suggests that consolidation from 1.4150 is a triangle pattern. Hence, while some more sideway trading would be seen initially this week, downside would be contained by 1.3733. On the upside, break of 1.4079 will indicate up trend resumption towards medium term trend line resistance (now at 1.4527). However, as the break out from triangle is usually terminal, we'd anticipate reversal and deeper correction after the next rise. |
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| Special Report | |
Fed to Spark QE2, What Options Does it Have?The Fed is almost certain to announce QE2 at the November FOMC meeting. Indeed, comments from Fed officials in recent weeks have indicated further accommodations are required to bring inflation and employment back to levels the FOMC sees as consistent with its dual mandate. We expect policymakers are inclined to a more gradual approach of monetary easing, i.e. to purchase long-term Treasury securities of around $100B per month, without upper limit on the total amount and being reviewed on every FOMC meeting. At the same time, the Fed may modify the language used in the accompanying statement as Chairman Ben Bernanke said at the Boston Fed conference that he would examine ways to achieve greater easing through a new communication strategy. |
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The Week in Review and Preview |
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