Friday, April 30, 2010

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 4-30-10

ActionForex.com
Action Insight Mid-Day Report

Dollar Soft after GDP, Euro Extends Recovery

Dollar remains generally soft, except versus yen, after release of Q1 GDP data from US. US economy grew 3.2% annualized rate in Q1, slightly below expectation of 3.4%. Price index rose 0.9% as expected while core PCE rose 0.6%. Employment costs jumped 0.6% in Q1 too. From Canada, GDP expanded less than expected by 0.3% mom in February. IPPI dropped -0.4% mom in March with RMPI rose 0.8%. Released earlier, Eurozone CPI was unchanged at 1.5% yoy in APril while unemployment was also steady at 10% in March. Swiss KOF leading indicator rose to 1.99 in April.

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Elliott Wave Analysis

Trade Idea: AUD/USD - Buy At 0.9230

As aussie has maintained a firm undertone after staging a rebound from 0.9135, adding credence to our view that the 2nd c leg of wave (ii) has ended there and consolidation with mild upside bias is seen for test of 0.9339 (x leg top) and then towards resistance at 0.9389, break there would bring resumption of upmove in wave (iii) for retest of 0.9407.

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Trade Idea: EUR/JPY - Exit Short Entered At 125.80

Euro's rally after breaking resistance at 124.92 has dampened our bearishness and suggests the correction from 127.95 has ended at 122.37 and upside risk is seen for test of 126.30, break there would confirm and extend further gain to 127.00. Looking ahead, above 127.95 resistance would confirm wave ii has ended and bring wave iii for headway to 129.00.

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Featured Technical Report Market Highlights

USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 93.24; (P) 93.78; (R1) 94.57; More.

USD/JPY rises further to as high as 94.57 earlier today but after all, upside is still limited below 94.68 resistance. Outlook remains neutral. On the upside, decisive break of 94.68 resistance will confirm that whole rally from 88.13 has resumed and should target 100% projection of 84.81 to 93.74 from 88.13 at 97.06 next. Before that, we might see more sideway consolidations first. Below 93.84 minor support will bring another fall but, we'd expected downside to be contained by 91.59 support to conclude the consolidation from 94.68 and bring rally resumption.

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All Technical Outlook Reports

Daily Top Movers

Top 5 Current Last Change
(Pips)
Change
(%)
NZDJPY 68.88 68.00 +88 +1.28%
NZDUSD 0.7315 0.7235 +80 +1.09%
EURCAD 1.3431 1.3299 +132 +0.98%
CHFJPY 87.60 86.76 +84 +0.96%
EURJPY 125.60 124.44 +116 +0.92%

Last Updated: Apr 30, 13:35 GMT

Currency Heat Map Daily View

USD EUR JPY GBP CHF CAD AUD
USD
EUR
JPY
GBP

Last Updated: Apr 30, 13:35 GMT

Economic Indicators Update
GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
23:01 GBP GfK Consumer Confidence Survey Apr -16 -14 -15
23:15 JPY Manufacturing PMI Apr 53.5 -- 52.4
23:30 JPY Unemployment Rate Mar 5.00% 4.90% 4.90%
23:30 JPY Household Spending Y/Y Mar 4.40% 0.70% -0.50%
23:30 JPY Tokyo CPI Core Y/Y Apr -1.90% -2.00% -1.80%
23:30 JPY National CPI Core Y/Y Mar -1.20% -1.20% -1.20%
23:50 JPY Industrial Production M/M Mar P 0.30% 0.80% -0.60%
23:50 JPY Industrial Production Y/Y Mar P 30.70% 31.10% 31.30%
04:15 JPY BoJ Interest Rate Decision 0.10% 0.10% 0.10%
05:00 JPY Housing Starts Y/Y Mar -2.40% -5.80% -9.30%
09:00 EUR Eurozone CPI Estimate Y/Y Apr 1.50% 1.50% 1.50%
09:00 EUR Eurozone Unemployment Rate Mar 10.00% 10.00% 10.00%
09:30 CHF KOF Leading Indicator Apr 1.99 1.99 1.93 1.96
12:30 CAD GDP M/M Feb 0.30% 0.40% 0.60%
12:30 CAD Industrial Product Price M/M Mar -0.40% 0.20% 0.00%
12:30 CAD Raw Materials Price Index M/M Mar 0.80% 0.90% 0.40%
12:30 USD GDP (Annualized) Q1 A 3.20% 3.40% 5.60%
12:30 USD GDP Price Index Q1 A 0.90% 0.90% 0.50%
12:30 USD Core PCE Q/Q Q1 A 0.60% 0.50% 1.80%
12:30 USD Employment Cost Index Q1 0.60% 0.50% 0.50%
13:45 USD Chicago PMI Apr 60 58.8
13:55 USD U. of Michigan Confidence Apr F 71 69.5
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Action Insight Daily Report 4-30-10

ActionForex.com
Action Insight Daily Report

AUD, NZD, GBP Strong as Risk Appetite Returns

Dollar and yen weaken further today as risk appetite continues to improve. Nikkei rose 1.21%, or 132pts, today following 1.1% rise in DOW. Crude is heading to 86 level while gold is back above 1170 again. Dollar index extends the retreat from 82.71 and is back below 82 level. Euro is relatively weak against commodity currencies on uncertainty over the final version of the Greece rescue package. Aussie, Kiwi and Sterling are the better performers today so far.

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Candlesticks & Ichimoku Analysis

Trade Idea: USD/JPY - Buy At 93.00

As dollar has remained confined within near term narrow range, suggesting further consolidation would take place ahead of the release of U.S. economic data and only break of resistance at 94.43 would signal upmove has resumed and bring a retest of recent high at 94.78, above there would extend rise to 95.10 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 101.45-84.82) but reckon 95.73 (1.618 times projection of 91.60-93.45 measuring from 92.74) would hold from here.

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Trade Idea: USD/CHF - Buy At 1.0760

As dollar has traded narrowly, suggesting near term sideways trading would continue and whilst retracement towards the Ichimoku cloud top (now at 1.0755) cannot be ruled out, as long as support at 1.0300 holds, prospect of another rally remains. Above this week's high at 1.0925 would extend upmove to 1.0970/80 but reckon resistance at 1.1026 would remain intact.

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Featured Technical Report Market Highlights

AUD/USD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9233; (P) 0.9263; (R1) 0.9305; More

AUD/USD's rebound from 0.9134 extends further to as high as 0.9317 so far today. The break of 0.9311 resistance indicates that choppy price actions from 0.9380 are merely consolidation in the larger rally and should have completed at 0.9134 already. Intraday bias is now on the upside for 0.9404 high and break will confirm medium term up trend resumption. On the downside, below 0.9222 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral again.

Read more...

All Technical Outlook Reports

Daily Top Movers

Top 5 Current Last Change
(Pips)
Change
(%)
EURJPY 125.14 124.44 +70 +0.56%
NZDJPY 68.35 68.00 +35 +0.51%
AUDJPY 87.63 87.19 +44 +0.50%
CHFJPY 87.19 86.76 +43 +0.49%
EURUSD 1.3294 1.3233 +61 +0.46%

Last Updated: Apr 30, 07:10 GMT

Currency Heat Map Daily View

USD EUR JPY GBP CHF CAD AUD
USD
EUR
JPY
GBP

Last Updated: Apr 30, 07:10 GMT

Economic Indicators Update
GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
23:01 GBP GfK Consumer Confidence Survey Apr -16 -14 -15
23:15 JPY Manufacturing PMI Apr 53.5 -- 52.4
23:30 JPY Unemployment Rate Mar 5.00% 4.90% 4.90%
23:30 JPY Household Spending Y/Y Mar 4.40% 0.70% -0.50%
23:30 JPY Tokyo CPI Core Y/Y Apr -1.90% -2.00% -1.80%
23:30 JPY National CPI Core Y/Y Mar -1.20% -1.20% -1.20%
23:50 JPY Industrial Production M/M Mar P 0.30% 0.80% -0.60%
23:50 JPY Industrial Production Y/Y Mar P 30.70% 31.10% 31.30%
4:15 JPY BoJ Interest Rate Decision 0.10% 0.10% 0.10%
5:00 JPY Housing Starts Y/Y Mar -2.40% -5.80% -9.30%
9:00 EUR Eurozone CPI Estimate Y/Y Apr 1.50% 1.40%
9:00 EUR Eurozone Unemployment Rate Mar 10.00% 10.00%
9:30 CHF KOF Leading Indicator Apr 1.99 1.93
12:30 CAD GDP M/M Feb 0.40% 0.60%
12:30 CAD Industrial Product Price M/M Mar 0.20% 0.00%
12:30 CAD Raw Materials Price Index M/M Mar 0.90% 0.40%
12:30 USD GDP (Annualized) Q1 A 3.40% 5.60%
12:30 USD GDP Price Index Q1 A 0.90% 0.50%
12:30 USD Core PCE Q/Q Q1 A 0.50% 1.80%
12:30 USD Employment Cost Index Q1 0.50% 0.50%
13:45 USD Chicago PMI Apr 60 58.8
13:55 USD U. of Michigan Confidence Apr F 71 69.5
Suggested Readings

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Thursday, April 29, 2010

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 4-29-10

ActionForex.com
Action Insight Mid-Day Report

Euro Extends Recovery against Dollar on Greek Optimism

Euro's recovery against dollar extends today on hope that the rescue package for Greece will be finalized soon. European Union Economic and Monetary Affairs Commissioner Olli Rehn said the European Union should complete talks "within days" while Germany opposition party also expressed that it will move quickly to approval funds for German participation. Euro is also supported by better than expected job market and confidence data. Nevertheless, the momentum of Euro is so far weak as there is no detail about the negotiation yet.

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Special Reports

RBNZ Pledges To Remove Stimulus In Coming Months

The RBNZ left the OCR at 2.5% but expected to 'begin removing policy stimulus over the coming months, provided the economy continues to evolve as projected'. This is inline with our expectations that the central bank should replace the 'middle of 2010' guidance with a conditional statement to pave the way for a first rate hike in June. Given the robust economic development since the last meeting, the RBNZ also turned more optimistic on the growth outlook.

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FOMC's Statement Contains Few Surprises: Mild Upgrades On Outlook, No Change In Monetary Stance

The FOMC made few changes at April's meeting. While mildly adjusting assessment on economic outlook, especially on housing and employment, the Fed maintained the policy rate at 0-0.25% and reiterated the exceptionally low rate policy will be kept for an extended period. Concerning inflation, the stance was exactly the same as the prior meeting.

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Greek Bonds Become Junk. What Are The Concerns?

S&P cut its credit rating for Greek government bonds by 3 notches, from BBB+ to BB+, to junk after assessing the political, economic and budgetary challenges the country is facing. The agency assigned a recovery rating of '4' to Greece's debt issues, indicating bondholders may recover on average 30-50% of their initial investments in the event of a debt restructuring or payment default. Outlook remains 'negative' and further downgrade is likely if the government's ability to implement its fiscal and structural reform program turns out to be 'materially' weaker that what is currently estimated.

Full Report Here...

Elliott Wave Analysis

Trade Idea: AUD/USD - Exit Short Entered At 0.9270

As aussie staged a strong rebound after falling to 0.9135 earlier this week, suggesting the 2nd c leg of wave (ii) has possibly ended there and consolidation with mild upside bias is seen, although gain towards 0.9339 (x leg top) cannot be ruled out, break there is needed to confirm correction is over and bring resumption of upmove in wave (iii) for retest of 0.9389.

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Trade Idea: EUR/JPY - Exit Short Entered At 124.70 And Sell At 125.80

Although the single currency retreated sharply yesterday from 124.92 (we entered short at 124.70 here) to 123.25, as renewed buying interest emerged there and staged a strong rebound, suggesting upside risk is for stronger rebound towards 125.50 and possibly 125.80 but price should falter below resistance at 126.30 and bring another decline later. Below said support at 123.25 would suggest the 2nd c leg is under way for retest of 122.37 first.

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Featured Technical Report Market Highlights

EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3133; (P) 1.3200 (R1) 1.3285; More.

EUR/USD's recovery from 1.3114 is still in progress and intraday bias remains neutral for the moment. Further rise cannot be ruled out but we'd expect upside to be limited below 1.3417 resistance and bring fall resumption. Decisive break of 61.8% projection of 1.4578 to 1.3443 from 1.3817 at 1.3113 will target 100% projection at 1.2682 next.

Read more...

All Technical Outlook Reports

Daily Top Movers

Top 5 Current Last Change
(Pips)
Change
(%)
CADJPY 93.70 93.12 +58 +0.62%
USDCAD 1.0038 1.0094 -56 -0.56%
EURCAD 1.3275 1.3343 -68 -0.51%
GBPJPY 143.53 142.97 +56 +0.39%
AUDJPY 87.25 86.92 +33 +0.38%

Last Updated: Apr 29, 13:35 GMT

Currency Heat Map Daily View

USD EUR JPY GBP CHF CAD AUD
USD
EUR
JPY
GBP

Last Updated: Apr 29, 13:35 GMT

Economic Indicators Update
GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
21:00 NZD RBNZ Interest Rate Decision 2.50% 2.50% 2.50%
22:45 NZD Trade Balance (NZD) Mar 567M 375M 321M 335M
00:00 AUD Conference Board Leading Index Feb -0.30% -- -0.20%
07:55 EUR German Unemployment Change Apr -68K -10K -31K
07:55 EUR German Unemployment Rate Apr 7.80% 8.00% 8.00%
08:00 EUR Eurozone M3 Y/Y Mar -0.10% -0.10% -0.40% -0.30%
09:00 EUR Eurozone Economic Confidence Apr 100.6 99.4 97.7 97.9
09:00 EUR Eurozone Consumer Confidence Apr F -15 -15 -15
09:00 EUR Eurozone Industrial Confidence Apr -7 -8 -10
09:00 EUR Eurozone Services Confidence Apr 5 3 1
12:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims 448K 442K 456K
14:30 USD Natural Gas Storage 70B 73B
Suggested Readings

FOMC

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights

 

Forex Brokers
Advanced Currency Markets
Saxobank
CMS
MIG
GFT
InterbankFX
FXCM
MGForex
Sponsors

Attend The Traders Expo in Los Angeles, June 9-12, at the Pasadena Convention Center; your best opportunity in 2010 to meet face to face with the experts, test the latest products and software, and network with other traders to find out what’s working for them…and what isn’t. Attend free, learn from trading experts, and become a more confident, profitable trader. Register FREE


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Action Forex Company Limited | Room 1707, 17/F | Treasure Center | 42 Hung To Road | Kwun Tong | Kowloon | 852 | Hong Kong