Friday, April 30, 2010

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 4-30-10

ActionForex.com
Action Insight Mid-Day Report

Dollar Soft after GDP, Euro Extends Recovery

Dollar remains generally soft, except versus yen, after release of Q1 GDP data from US. US economy grew 3.2% annualized rate in Q1, slightly below expectation of 3.4%. Price index rose 0.9% as expected while core PCE rose 0.6%. Employment costs jumped 0.6% in Q1 too. From Canada, GDP expanded less than expected by 0.3% mom in February. IPPI dropped -0.4% mom in March with RMPI rose 0.8%. Released earlier, Eurozone CPI was unchanged at 1.5% yoy in APril while unemployment was also steady at 10% in March. Swiss KOF leading indicator rose to 1.99 in April.

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Elliott Wave Analysis

Trade Idea: AUD/USD - Buy At 0.9230

As aussie has maintained a firm undertone after staging a rebound from 0.9135, adding credence to our view that the 2nd c leg of wave (ii) has ended there and consolidation with mild upside bias is seen for test of 0.9339 (x leg top) and then towards resistance at 0.9389, break there would bring resumption of upmove in wave (iii) for retest of 0.9407.

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Trade Idea: EUR/JPY - Exit Short Entered At 125.80

Euro's rally after breaking resistance at 124.92 has dampened our bearishness and suggests the correction from 127.95 has ended at 122.37 and upside risk is seen for test of 126.30, break there would confirm and extend further gain to 127.00. Looking ahead, above 127.95 resistance would confirm wave ii has ended and bring wave iii for headway to 129.00.

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Featured Technical Report Market Highlights

USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 93.24; (P) 93.78; (R1) 94.57; More.

USD/JPY rises further to as high as 94.57 earlier today but after all, upside is still limited below 94.68 resistance. Outlook remains neutral. On the upside, decisive break of 94.68 resistance will confirm that whole rally from 88.13 has resumed and should target 100% projection of 84.81 to 93.74 from 88.13 at 97.06 next. Before that, we might see more sideway consolidations first. Below 93.84 minor support will bring another fall but, we'd expected downside to be contained by 91.59 support to conclude the consolidation from 94.68 and bring rally resumption.

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Daily Top Movers

Top 5 Current Last Change
(Pips)
Change
(%)
NZDJPY 68.88 68.00 +88 +1.28%
NZDUSD 0.7315 0.7235 +80 +1.09%
EURCAD 1.3431 1.3299 +132 +0.98%
CHFJPY 87.60 86.76 +84 +0.96%
EURJPY 125.60 124.44 +116 +0.92%

Last Updated: Apr 30, 13:35 GMT

Currency Heat Map Daily View

USD EUR JPY GBP CHF CAD AUD
USD
EUR
JPY
GBP

Last Updated: Apr 30, 13:35 GMT

Economic Indicators Update
GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
23:01 GBP GfK Consumer Confidence Survey Apr -16 -14 -15
23:15 JPY Manufacturing PMI Apr 53.5 -- 52.4
23:30 JPY Unemployment Rate Mar 5.00% 4.90% 4.90%
23:30 JPY Household Spending Y/Y Mar 4.40% 0.70% -0.50%
23:30 JPY Tokyo CPI Core Y/Y Apr -1.90% -2.00% -1.80%
23:30 JPY National CPI Core Y/Y Mar -1.20% -1.20% -1.20%
23:50 JPY Industrial Production M/M Mar P 0.30% 0.80% -0.60%
23:50 JPY Industrial Production Y/Y Mar P 30.70% 31.10% 31.30%
04:15 JPY BoJ Interest Rate Decision 0.10% 0.10% 0.10%
05:00 JPY Housing Starts Y/Y Mar -2.40% -5.80% -9.30%
09:00 EUR Eurozone CPI Estimate Y/Y Apr 1.50% 1.50% 1.50%
09:00 EUR Eurozone Unemployment Rate Mar 10.00% 10.00% 10.00%
09:30 CHF KOF Leading Indicator Apr 1.99 1.99 1.93 1.96
12:30 CAD GDP M/M Feb 0.30% 0.40% 0.60%
12:30 CAD Industrial Product Price M/M Mar -0.40% 0.20% 0.00%
12:30 CAD Raw Materials Price Index M/M Mar 0.80% 0.90% 0.40%
12:30 USD GDP (Annualized) Q1 A 3.20% 3.40% 5.60%
12:30 USD GDP Price Index Q1 A 0.90% 0.90% 0.50%
12:30 USD Core PCE Q/Q Q1 A 0.60% 0.50% 1.80%
12:30 USD Employment Cost Index Q1 0.60% 0.50% 0.50%
13:45 USD Chicago PMI Apr 60 58.8
13:55 USD U. of Michigan Confidence Apr F 71 69.5
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