Friday, April 23, 2010

Action Insight Daily Report 4-23-10

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Action Insight Daily Report

Euro Decline Continues, Focus on UK GDP

Euro extends yesterday's decline and makes new 2010 low against dollar and new record low against Aussie today. Greece remains the center of focus as Moody's downgraded Greece’s credit rating one notch to A3, just four grades above junk. CDS also climbed to record high of 644bps while yield on Greek 10 year bonds jumped 81 bps to 8.97%. There are speculations that Greece is seeking a bridge loan for the $11.b bonds come due next month. G20 officials are expected to discuss the Greece situation in the meeting that starts today and US and Japan are called on by Europe to voice support for Greece. In any case, Greece bond yields and CDS will likely continue to rise until there's result from the meeting between EU/IMF on the rescue and Euro will remain under pressure. German Ifo will be released today but is not expected to provide much support to the common currency.

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Special Reports

UK General Election and Implications on GBP

UK's Prime Minister Gordon Brown announced on April 6 that the next general election will be held on May 6. Although the severe selloff (over -30%) from November 2007 ended in March 2009, rebound of the pound was fragile and a new round of selling appeared to have begun in recent months. Recovery, growth and budget deficits are investors' major concerns. Changes are what all British people are looking for. Therefore, election of a new government gives the market and the citizens a beam of hope.

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Candlesticks & Ichimoku Analysis

Trade Idea: EUR/USD - Sell At 1.3350

Yesterday's breach of 1.3267 support confirms recent decline has resumed and further weakness to 1.3187 (1.236 times projection of 1.3692 to 1.3416 measuring from 1.3528) and possibly towards 1.3140 (100% projection of 1.3819-1.3267 measuring from 1.3692) would be seen, however, reckon 1.3080 (1.618 times projection of 1.5145-1.4218 measuring from 1.4580) would hold from here and bring rebound later due to near term oversold condition.

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Trade Idea: USD/CHF - Buy At 1.0765

Dollar's rally after breaking indicated resistance at 1.0786 confirms the entire correction from 1.0899 top has ended at 1.0435 earlier and bullishness remains for the upmove from 2009 low of 0.9910 to resume for retest of said resistance at 1.0899, break there would extend gain towards 1.0939 (50% Fibonacci retracement of 1.1967-0.9910) but near term overbought condition should limit upside and reckon 1.1000 would hold from here.

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Featured Technical Report Market Highlights

USD/CHF Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0700; (P) 1.0752; (R1) 1.0830; More.

USD/CHF's rally extends further to a high as 1.0849 so far today and intraday bias remains on the upside for 1.0897 resistance. The strong break of 1.0785 support affirms our view that correction from 1.0897 is already completed with three waves down to 1.0434. Decisive break of 1.0897 will confirm that whole medium term rise from 0.9916 has resumed and should then target 100% projection of 1.0131 to 1.0897 from 1.0434 at 1.1200 next. On the downside, below 1.0759 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first. But downside should be contained by 4 hours 55 EMA (now at 1.0672) and bring rally resumption.

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Daily Top Movers

Top 5 Current Last Change
(Pips)
Change
(%)
AUDJPY 85.80 86.67 -87 -1.01%
AUDCAD 0.9187 0.9275 -88 -0.96%
GBPAUD 1.6730 1.6574 +156 +0.93%
AUDUSD 0.9188 0.9273 -85 -0.93%
AUDNZD 1.2935 1.3042 -107 -0.83%

Last Updated: Apr 23, 07:25 GMT

Currency Heat Map Daily View

USD EUR JPY GBP CHF CAD AUD
USD
EUR
JPY
GBP

Last Updated: Apr 23, 07:25 GMT

Economic Indicators Update
GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
1:30 AUD Import Price Index Q/Q Q1 0.30% -1.40% -4.30%
4:30 JPY All Industry Activity Index M/M Feb -2.30% -1.30% 3.80% 3.40%
8:00 EUR German IFO - Expectations Apr 102.1 101.9
8:00 EUR German IFO - Business Climate Apr 98.7 98.1
8:00 EUR German IFO - Current Assessment Apr 95.3 94.4
8:30 GBP GDP Q/Q Q1 A 0.40% 0.40%
8:30 GBP GDP Y/Y Q1 A -0.10% -3.10%
8:30 GBP Index of Services 3M/3M Feb 0.50% 0.60%
9:00 EUR Eurozone Industrial New Orders M/M Feb 0.80% -2.00%
9:00 EUR Eurozone Industrial New Orders Y/Y Feb 11.20% 7.00%
11:00 CAD CPI M/M Mar 0.20% 0.40%
11:00 CAD CPI Y/Y Mar 1.60% 1.60%
11:00 CAD BoC CPI Core M/M Mar 0.00% 0.70%
11:00 CAD BoC CPI Core Y/Y Mar 1.90% 2.10%
12:30 CAD Retail Sales M/M Feb 1.00% 0.70%
12:30 CAD Retail Sales Less Autos M/M Feb 0.80% 1.80%
12:30 USD Durable Goods Orders Mar 0.10% 0.50%
12:30 USD Durables Ex Transportation Mar 0.50% 0.90%
14:00 USD New Home Sales Mar 322K 308K
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