Wednesday, April 14, 2010

Action Insight Daily Report 4-14-10

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Action Insight Daily Report

Risk Appetite Back but Kiwi Lags

Markets are back into risk seeking mode as yen and dollar weakens across the board today. In particular, EUR/JPY breaks this week's high of 127.44 is set to take on 127.88 resistance which EUR/USD is heading towards 1.3691 level. Commodity currencies are also firm with USD/CAD dipping through parity again and is heading to recent low of 0.9976. Nevertheless, New Zealand dollar is lagging behind on poor retail sales report which showed -0.6% mom contraction in February.

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Special Report

Who Will Benefit from Revaluation in Yuan?

US Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner's unscheduled meeting to Beijing on April 8 and the postponement the deadline (originally on April 15) of a US review of China's currency policies rekindle speculations that the Chinese government will allow the Renminbi (RMB, CNY, Yuan) to appreciate.

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Candlesticks & Ichimoku Analysis

Trade Idea: EUR/USD - Buy At 1.3535

Although the single currency rebounded after falling to 1.3545 yesterday, break of resistance at 1.3692 is needed to signal the rise from recent low of 1.3267 has resumed and bring stronger retracement of early decline to 1.3769 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement of 1.4580 to 1.3267), otherwise, further consolidation would take place.

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Trade Idea: USD/JPY - Buy At 93.00

Despite yesterday's fall to 92.57, as dollar found decent demand there and staged a strong rebound, suggesting pullback from 94.78 has possibly ended there and consolidation with upside bias is seen for gain to 93.79/82 (previous minor resistance at current level of the Ichimoku cloud top) but break of resistance at 94.27 is needed to confirm upmove from 84.82 has resumed for retest of recent high at 94.78 later this week.

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Featured Technical Report Market Highlights

EUR/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 126.00; (P) 126.54; (R1) 127.39; More.

EUR/JPY 's break of 127.44 indicates that rise fro 123.41 has resumed and flips intraday bias back to the upside for 127.88 resistance. Break there will confirm that whole rally from 119.64 has resumed too and should target 100% projection of 121.05 to 127.88 from 123.41 at 130.24 next. On the downside, below 125.69 will indicate that consolidation from 127.88 is still in progress and more choppy sideway trading would be seen first before another rally.

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Daily Top Movers

Top 5 Current Last Change
(Pips)
Change
(%)
AUDNZD 1.3091 1.3014 +77 +0.59%
NZDUSD 0.7108 0.7136 -28 -0.39%
CADJPY 93.41 93.08 +33 +0.35%
AUDJPY 86.87 86.57 +30 +0.35%
NZDJPY 66.33 66.50 -17 -0.26%

Last Updated: Apr 13, 06:30 GMT

Currency Heat Map Daily View

USD EUR JPY GBP CHF CAD AUD
USD
EUR
JPY
GBP

Last Updated: Apr 13, 06:30 GMT

Economic Indicators Update
GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
21:00 USD ABC Consumer Confidence (APR 11) -47 -- -43
22:45 NZD Retail Sales M/M Feb -0.60% 0.20% 0.80% 0.70%
22:45 NZD Retail Sales ex Auto M/M Feb -0.90% 0.40% 0.30%
23:00 USD Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks -- --
23:15 USD Fed Lacker Speaks -- --
00:30 AUD Westpac Consumer Confidence Apr -1.00% -- 0.20%
06:30 JPY BoJ Governor Shirakawa Speak -- --
09:00 EUR Eurozone Industrial Production M/M Feb 0.10% 1.70%
09:00 EUR Eurozone Industrial Production Y/Y Feb 2.80% 1.40%
12:30 USD Advance Retail Sales Mar 1.10% 0.30%
12:30 USD Retail Sales Less Autos Mar 0.50% 0.80%
12:30 USD CPI M/M Mar 0.10% 0.00%
12:30 USD CPI Y/Y Mar 2.40% 2.10%
12:30 USD CPI Core M/M Mar 0.10% 0.10%
12:30 USD CPI Core Y/Y Mar 1.20% 1.30%
13:30 USD Fed Pianalto Speaks -- --
14:00 USD Fed Chairman Bernanke Testifies -- --
14:00 USD Business Inventories Feb 0.30% 0.00%
14:30 USD Crude Oil Inventories 1.4M 2.0M
15:00 USD Fed Lacker Speaks -- --
17:00 USD Fed Fisher Speaks -- --
18:00 USD Fed Beige Book -- --
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